38876 Bartlett Point Rd · Clayton, NY 13624

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1940 9,148 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. This well-maintained three-bedroom home features an updated kitchen, hardwood floors, and a private backyard with mature landscaping. This property features two comfortable bedrooms and one well-appointed bathroom, providing a practical living arrangement for your daily needs. The thoughtful configuration offers privacy and convenience throughout. The home presents a clean, move-in ready condition that allows you to settle in immediately. Each space has been maintained with care, creating an inviting atmosphere for relaxation and everyday living.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious kitchen
• Natural light

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CUPBOARD STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.5% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#621 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Thousand Islands Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #262 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.64%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $70,811
• Equity at exit: $68,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $183,965
• Equity at exit: $144,170

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13624

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,447 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,540/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $841

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Joseph Lonsway Dr Clayton, NY	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.0	1477	$1,447	$0.98	43d	4	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,540 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,540
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $4,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thousand Islands Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607650
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,233
• Composite: 49.94/100
• National rank: #1930
• State rank: #262 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #621
• US rank: #11271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,438

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.39%
• Current HPI: 418.5008
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $80,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+18.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,540 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.