63 Cranebill Pl · Defuniak Springs, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +13.9/30.0
- ARV discount +11.3/15.0
- Appreciation +10.0/10.0
- Schools +5.6/10.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- DSCR +4.2/10.0
- 1% rule +3.9/10.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
$207,990
63 Cranebill Pl · Defuniak Springs, FL 32433
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily
· 65 Days on market
Built 2026
10,018 sqft lot
$187/sqft
· 9% below area
Est $227k · 9% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
4 bed | 2 bath | 1114 sqft
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- Open design
- Mossy head community
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($252/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (11.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $185k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Defuniak Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
- Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Mossy Head School (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 439 students, 86% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL).
- Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$184,609
(11.2% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.89% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.41%
- Cash-on-cash
- 0.43%
- DSCR
- 1.02
- GRM
- 9.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $227,407
- List price
- $207,990
- Delta
- -8.54%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64 Bobwhite Ln | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,209 (+8%) | 16mo | $240,000 | $199 | 71 |
| 103 E Hyacinth Ave | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 | 1,165 (+5%) | 14mo | $215,000 | $185 | 68 |
| 92 E Larkspur Ave | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,145 (+3%) | 12mo | $224,000 | $196 | 68 |
| 174 E Larkspur Ave | 0.35mi | 3/2.0 | 1,145 (+3%) | 14mo | $224,000 | $196 | 67 |
| 145 E Dogwood Ave | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,145 (+3%) | 13mo | $219,000 | $191 | 66 |
| 95 E Dogwood Ave | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 | 1,145 (+3%) | 13mo | $219,000 | $191 | 66 |
| 175 E Dogwood Ave | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,145 (+3%) | 16mo | $224,000 | $196 | 65 |
| 624 Tiger Lily Ln | 0.61mi | 3/2.0 | 1,114 (0%) | 11mo | $199,990 | $180 | 62 |
| 969 Walden Rd | 0.53mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,152 (+3%) | 9mo | $200,990 | $174 | 57 |
| 166 Blue Ridge Blvd | 0.55mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,200 (+8%) | 1mo | $150,000 | $125 | 51 |
| 38 W Crocus Ave | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 | 1,272 (+14%) | 14mo | $206,990 | $163 | 46 |
| 28 W Crocus Ave | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 | 1,272 (+14%) | 14mo | $210,990 | $166 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 24.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.97×
- Total profit
- $114,645
- Equity at exit
- $187,374
10-year hold
- IRR
- 21.8%
- Equity multiple
- 6.78×
- Total profit
- $336,611
- Equity at exit
- $404,079
Cash invested: $58,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 14 active · 7 under contract
- Months of supply
- 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $199,000 ($182/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 68 d
- This list price
- 71% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +12.3% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32433
- Home prices YoY
- 4.2%
- Active inventory
- 553
- Price-to-rent
- 9.4×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,846 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,091
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$260 /mo · $3,120/yr
- Insurance
- −$87
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$388
- Net cashflow
- $21
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,819
Max offer price
$207,990
Occupancy floor
94%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $165 | -5% $93 | +0% $21 | +5% $-51 | +10% $-123 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-125 | -5% $-52 | +0% $21 | +5% $94 | +10% $167 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $126 | -0.5pp $74 | base $21 | +0.5pp $-33 | +1.0pp $-88 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $51,998
- Closing costs
- $6,240
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 Hibiscus Ave Defuniak Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1256 | $1,950 | $1.55 | 70d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 71 Lafavre Ln Defuniak Springs, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 806 | $1,650 | $2.05 | 70d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 135 Tiger Lily Ln Defuniak Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1114 | $1,795 | $1.61 | 62d | 1 | 1.10mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Subdivision: Mossy Head
Exterior
- Utilities
- Public waterSeptic tankElectric water heater
- Home design
- Ranch-style single-story homeEntry level: first floor
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingBuilt in 2026
- Exterior features
- Paved road accessPaved road surfaceLot dimensions approximately 124 x 79Lot zoned for single-family residential
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherMicrowave
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedroomsMaster bedroom on the first floor
- Flooring
- Vinyl flooringCarpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingElectric heat control
- Interior features
- Washer/dryer hookupDouble-pane windows
- Laundry & utility
- Washer/dryer hookupElectric water heater
Listing history 50 events
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2026-08-08days on market $207,990 Active 65 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $207,990 Active 64 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $207,990 Active 63 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $207,990 Active 62 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $207,990 Active 61 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $207,990 Active 60 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $207,990 Active 57 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $207,990 Active 56 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $207,990 Active 55 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $207,990 Active 53 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $207,990 Active 51 DOM
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2026-07-24days on market $207,990 Active 50 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $207,990 Active 49 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $207,990 Active 48 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $207,990 Active 47 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $207,990 Active 44 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $207,990 Active 42 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $207,990 Active 41 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $207,990 Active 40 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $207,990 Active 39 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $207,990 Active 38 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $207,990 Active 37 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $207,990 Active 36 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $207,990 Active 35 DOM
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2026-07-08days on market $207,990 Active 34 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $207,990 Active 33 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $207,990 Active 32 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $207,990 Active 31 DOM
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2026-07-04days on market $207,990 Active 30 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $207,990 Active 29 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $207,990 Active 28 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $207,990 Active 27 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $207,990 Active 26 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $207,990 Active 25 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $207,990 Active 24 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $207,990 Active 23 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $207,990 Active 22 DOM
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2026-06-25days on market $207,990 Active 20 DOM
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2026-06-23days on market $207,990 Active 18 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $207,990 Active 17 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $207,990 Active 14 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $207,990 Active 13 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $207,990 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $207,990 Active 11 DOM
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2026-06-14days on market $207,990 Active 9 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $207,990 Active 8 DOM
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2026-06-10days on market $207,990 Active 6 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $207,990 Active 5 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $207,990 Active 4 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $207,990 Active 3 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,153
- − Mortgage interest
- −$11,651
- − Property taxes
- −$3,120
- − Insurance
- −$1,040
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,772
- − Management
- −$1,772
- − Depreciation
- −$6,051
- Taxable loss
- −$3,253
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$781
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,033/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
100/100
None rehab
This single-story home in the Mossy Head Community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint the exterior siding and trim — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
- Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Landscaping can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
D
Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Mossy Head School
B
FL #525/2,144
Nat'l #5,189/41,679
Middle
Walton Middle School
C
FL #246/571
Nat'l #3,367/14,009
High
Walton High School
C-
FL #154/667
Nat'l #4,948/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Walton
- NCES district ID
- 1201980
- Math proficiency
- 62% ▼ -4.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,794
- Composite
- 52.03/100
- National rank
- #1634
- State rank
- #10 of 73 in FL
C
Composite livability gradescore 64/100
Livability — Defuniak Springs
- Score
- 64/100
- State rank
- #694
- US rank
- #14475
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime D
Employment D-
Housing A+
Health & safety C-
User ratings D-
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Walton County · 80,014 people
- City population
- 19,746
- Metro
- Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 19,746
- Household income
- $52,199
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 10% of renters
Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 80,014 people
- By 2030
- 88,120 · +10.1%
- By 2040
- 103,537 · +29.4%
- By 2050
- 117,034 · +46.3%
- By 2075
- 143,901 · +79.8%
- By 2100
- 155,138 · +93.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (75%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 6% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Walton
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 14.77%
- Current HPI
- 367.046
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-05 Listed $207,990 Zillow
- 2026-06-04 Listed $207,990 ECAR
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…