263 Berme Rd · Ellenville, NY 12428

$218,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1910 7,318 sqft lot $176/sqft · 16% below area Est $260k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a 0.16-acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft. , the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard--accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows--ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this ''gem in the rough'' offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Ample cabinetry
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GROUND LEVEL PRIMARY BEDROOM
• BRIGHT INVITING LIVING ROOM
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($829/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Ellenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#961 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $218k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,788 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,641
• List price: $218,500
• Delta: -15.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Dewitt St	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-3%)	6mo	$250,000	$208	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $123,358
• Equity at exit: $196,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $359,716
• Equity at exit: $424,497

Cash invested: $61,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12428

• Home prices YoY: 20.0%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,846/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $218,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,625
• Closing costs: $6,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Warren St Ellenville, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.30mi
17 Rear Chapel St Unit 2 Ellenville, NY	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,700	$1.60	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

   Situated on a 0.16 acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft., the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless-steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard—accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows—ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this “gem in the rough” offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

   Situated on a 0.16 acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft., the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless-steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard—accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows—ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this “gem in the rough” offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

3. 2026-02-26
   historical Active Under Contract 1403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

   Situated on a 0.16-acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft. , the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard--accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows--ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this ''gem in the rough'' offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

4. 2026-02-11
   listed $218,500 Active 1403-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

   Situated on a 0.16 acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft., the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless-steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard—accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows—ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this “gem in the rough” offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

5. 2026-02-11
   listed $218,500 Active 1424-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1424 chars)

   Situated on a 0.16 acre corner lot just outside the heart of Ellenville Village, this 1910 bungalow offers a promising opportunity for first time buyers and investors alike. With 1,242 sq. ft., the home features a functional layout that supports everyday living right from the start: a ground level primary bedroom, an adjacent large bathroom with laundry area, and a bright, inviting living room. The formal entry leads into a dining area/hallway, with a galley kitchen nearby that includes ample cabinetry, a gas range, and a new stainless-steel refrigerator. Upstairs, two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, work, or hobbies. From the kitchen, step out onto the generously sized back deck overlooking the yard—accessible from the side road and well suited for outdoor dining, gardening, or pets. The partial basement, accessed from the exterior, houses several valuable updates including a new furnace, new hot water heater, and new pressure tank. A one car garage sits adjacent to the house, and the backyard includes a solid craft shed with electricity and windows—ideal for a workshop or extra storage. Whether you are ready to roll up your sleeves and renovate or prefer to move in and update at your own pace, this “gem in the rough” offers a solid foundation and plenty of potential in a convenient Ellenville location. Bring your ideas and make this bungalow your own.

6. 2019-09-24
   soldstatus $91,000
7. 2019-09-24
   soldstatus $91,000
8. 2018-07-27
   listed $90,000
9. 2018-07-27
   listed $90,000
10. 2018-06-18
    historical
11. 2016-01-18
    listed $85,000
12. 2014-07-21
    historical
13. 2014-01-24
    listed $65,000
14. 2012-08-12
    historical
15. 2012-04-20
    listed $60,000
16. 2012-04-20
    listed $60,000
17. 2011-07-19
    listed $65,000
18. 2010-11-04
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,769 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$923/yr (+$77/mo · 50.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,846
• − Insurance: −$1,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − Depreciation: −$6,356
• Taxable loss: −$2,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610500
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 33.22/100
• National rank: #5525
• State rank: #534 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellenville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #18871

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,972

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 62.17%
• Current HPI: 372.5352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+191.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $218,500 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $218,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-24 Sold (MLS) $91,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-24 Sold (MLS) $91,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-07-27 Listed $90,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-27 Listed $90,000 HVCRMLS
• 2018-06-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-18 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-24 Listed $65,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-20 Listed $60,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-20 Listed $60,000 HVCRMLS
• 2011-07-19 Listed $65,000 HVCRMLS
• 2010-11-04 Listed $75,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,846 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.