11385 N Tongass Hwy Spc 506 · Ketchikan, AK 99901

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 803 sqft · Manufactured public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2011

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming waterfront mobile home with breathtaking views! Built in 2011, this energy-efficient 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 803 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and abundant natural light. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings while taking in the stunning water views right from your home. The cozy interior provides a welcoming atmosphere, making it a great option for year-round living, a getaway retreat, or investment opportunity. Experience the beauty and tranquility of waterfront living in this well-maintained property.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Stunning water views
• Energy-efficient

Tags

• WATERFRONT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STUNNING WATER VIEWS
• WELL-MAINTAINED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $722 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 3.7% in Ketchikan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AK, #3,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District (town): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #7 of 21 in AK (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Ketchikan Gateway Borough in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ketchikan Gateway County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.91%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $27,304
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $82,793
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99901

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $250/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming waterfront mobile home with breathtaking views! Built in 2011, this energy-efficient 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 803 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and abundant natural light. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings while taking in the stunning water views right from your home. The cozy interior provides a welcoming atmosphere, making it a great option for year-round living, a getaway retreat, or investment opportunity. Experience the beauty and tranquility of waterfront living in this well-maintained property.

17. 2026-03-27
    historical Active Under Contract 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming waterfront mobile home with breathtaking views! Built in 2011, this energy-efficient 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 803 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and abundant natural light. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings while taking in the stunning water views right from your home. The cozy interior provides a welcoming atmosphere, making it a great option for year-round living, a getaway retreat, or investment opportunity. Experience the beauty and tranquility of waterfront living in this well-maintained property.

18. 2026-03-13
    listed $115,000 Active 561-char remark

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Charming waterfront mobile home with breathtaking views! Built in 2011, this energy-efficient 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 803 sq ft of comfortable living space with a functional layout and abundant natural light. Enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings while taking in the stunning water views right from your home. The cozy interior provides a welcoming atmosphere, making it a great option for year-round living, a getaway retreat, or investment opportunity. Experience the beauty and tranquility of waterfront living in this well-maintained property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $250 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $809 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 224.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$250
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $6,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ketchikan Gateway Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200150
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,859
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4550
• State rank: #7 of 21 in AK

Livability — Ketchikan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #3743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,875

Population outlook (Ketchikan Gateway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,287 people
• By 2030: 14,487 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 14,750 · +3.2%
• By 2050: 14,908 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 15,319 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 15,204 · +6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Native American 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 7% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ketchikan Gateway

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 190.039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — SEABR
• 2026-03-27 Contingent — SEABR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $115,000 SEABR

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $250 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.