16203 Silver Wing Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$299,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2010 8,289 sqft lot $116/sqft · 28% below area Est $417k · 28% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained two-story brick home offering space, comfort, and privacy. Featuring 5 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this home is designed for family living. The private owner’s suite is located on the main floor and features an en suite bath with double vanities and a relaxing soaking tub. Upstairs, all secondary bedrooms are generously sized and include walk-in closets for ample storage. Enjoy entertaining in the large game room, ideal for movie nights, a play area, or additional living space. The open-concept kitchen features a gas stove, breakfast bar, and seamless flow into the dining and living areas. Situated in a quiet cul-de-sac

Key facts

• Private owners suite
• Open concept kitchen
• En suite bath

Tags

• TWO STORY BRICK HOME
• PRIVATE OWNERS SUITE
• EN SUITE BATH
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• QUIET CUL DE SAC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient HVAC, thermostat, and windows
• HOA & community: Mallard Crossing HOA with an annual fee of $360

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2010; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac within a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16x13); Four additional bedrooms on the second floor (16x12; 10x14; 13x14; 12x16); Total of 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-591 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (34.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,659 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,074
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -28.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16611 Prairie Rose Bend Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,539 (-1%)	2mo	$383,990	$151	92
28955 Rustic Robin Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,539 (-1%)	2mo	$393,990	$155	92
16215 Mallard View Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,650 (+3%)	1mo	$419,841	$158	76
27234 Wheat Falls Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (-6%)	2mo	$378,990	$157	73
27103 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	1mo	$444,557	$159	70
27119 Mound Hill Cir	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	1mo	$446,207	$159	70
27111 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	1mo	$446,766	$160	70
27122 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	1mo	$424,509	$152	68
27203 Sunflower Glen Ln	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	2mo	$436,733	$156	67
16207 Mallard View Ln	0.21mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (+9%)	0mo	$439,881	$157	66
27327 Prairie Rush Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,529 (-2%)	1mo	$424,900	$168	63
27410 Rolling Bluestem Ln	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,476 (-4%)	2mo	$424,900	$172	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-92,782
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -76.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-155,115
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$755 /mo · $9,063/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,137

Max offer price $194,659

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-421	-5% $-506	+0% $-591	+5% $-675	+10% $-760
Rent	-10% $-779	-5% $-685	+0% $-591	+5% $-496	+10% $-402
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-515	base $-591	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26207 Glee Meadow Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.5	3498	$2,850	$0.81	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $349,000 Active 959-char remark
16. 2026-05-12
    historical
17. 2026-04-20
    price $349,000
18. 2026-03-12
    price $379,000
19. 2026-02-23
    listed $389,000 Active
20. 2011-06-22
    historical
21. 2011-02-09
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,063 · $755/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,063 · $755/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$9,063
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$12,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,949
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+93.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $349,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $379,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $389,000 HARMLS
• 2011-06-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-02-09 Listed $154,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+32.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,063 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.