509 Harris Ave · Braymer, MO 64624

$129,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,946 sqft · Other public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1905 7,841 sqft lot $67/sqft · 44% below area Est $187k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 Bedroom Bungalow in a Peaceful Rural Community of Braymer, MO – Successful Airbnb Since 2023 Discover comfort, privacy, and income potential in this well-kept 2 bedroom/ 1 bath bungalow, nestled in a quiet rural community of Braymer . Currently operated as a successful Airbnb since 2023, this property offers both a cozy home atmosphere and a great investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 187 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($858/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#692 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Braymer C-4 (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 535 in MO (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($895 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,123 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,761
• List price: $129,500
• Delta: -30.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $75,017
• Equity at exit: $116,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $217,195
• Equity at exit: $251,590

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64624

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $311/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,500 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,500 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,500 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,500 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,500 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,500 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 177 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,500 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,500 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $129,500 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom Bungalow in a Peaceful Rural Community of Braymer, MO – Successful Airbnb Since 2023 Discover comfort, privacy, and income potential in this well-kept 2 bedroom/ 1 bath bungalow, nestled in a quiet rural community of Braymer . Currently operated as a successful Airbnb since 2023, this property offers both a cozy home atmosphere and a great investment opportunity.

16. 2026-04-06
    price $132,500 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom Bungalow in a Peaceful Rural Community of Braymer, MO – Successful Airbnb Since 2023 Discover comfort, privacy, and income potential in this well-kept 2 bedroom/ 1 bath bungalow, nestled in a quiet rural community of Braymer . Currently operated as a successful Airbnb since 2023, this property offers both a cozy home atmosphere and a great investment opportunity.

17. 2025-12-12
    listed $135,000 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Charming 2 Bedroom Bungalow in a Peaceful Rural Community of Braymer, MO – Successful Airbnb Since 2023 Discover comfort, privacy, and income potential in this well-kept 2 bedroom/ 1 bath bungalow, nestled in a quiet rural community of Braymer . Currently operated as a successful Airbnb since 2023, this property offers both a cozy home atmosphere and a great investment opportunity.

18. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus
19. 2023-05-17
    soldstatus Closed 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features over 1,500 sqft with newer updates and a nice fenced in yard! It has a 12'x14' shed on the property and sits on a quiet street in a small rural town!

20. 2023-04-06
    listed $69,900 Active 186-char remark

    Show marketing remark (186 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home features over 1,500 sqft with newer updates and a nice fenced in yard! It has a 12'x14' shed on the property and sits on a quiet street in a small rural town!

21. 2022-04-14
    historical
22. 2022-02-05
    listed $69,900 Active
23. 2018-02-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$946/yr (+$79/mo · 304.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$311
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable loss: −$1,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$332
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Braymer C-4
• NCES district ID: 2905820
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,349
• Composite: 47.73/100
• National rank: #4905
• State rank: #71 of 535 in MO

Livability — Braymer

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #22627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Braymer, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,488

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,255 people
• By 2030: 7,838 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 7,034 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 6,330 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 5,206 · -36.9%
• By 2100: 4,436 · -46.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.3) · D 18.9% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -61.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.3 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.80%
• Current HPI: 371.6211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+85.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $129,500 NECAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $132,500 NECAR
• 2025-12-12 Listed $135,000 NECAR
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-17 Sold (MLS) — NECAR
• 2023-04-06 Listed $69,900 NECAR
• 2022-04-14 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-05 Listed $69,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $311 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.