814 Griffin St · Niles, OH 44446

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1918 6,669 sqft lot $85/sqft · 28% below area Est $124k · 28% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 814 Griffin Street! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch home features a spacious living room, eat-in kitchen, and a full basement. There is also a nice-sized backyard with a storage shed. Use your imagination and transform this cozy ranch into the home of your dreams.

Key facts

• Nice-sized backyard
• Full basement
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• NICE-SIZED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel parking; no garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Has heating (gas)
• Home design: Single-story home; Property listed as fixer condition; Above-grade finished area per assessor: 1,060
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 58 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen with linoleum flooring
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet in some bedrooms and living room; Linoleum in other bedrooms, kitchen, and bathroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.8% in Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Niles City (suburban): math 37% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #507 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.85%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,456
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -27.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
804 Hartzell Ave	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,086 (+2%)	0mo	$168,700	$155	78
213 N Bentley Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+3%)	6mo	$40,000	$37	73
819 Niles Vienna Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+6%)	1mo	$148,000	$132	72
504 Lincoln Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+11%)	4mo	$165,000	$140	66
732 Washington Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,179 (+11%)	11mo	$132,500	$112	64
14 Evans St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	994 (-6%)	2mo	$145,000	$146	62
1411 Gypsy Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-0%)	8mo	$181,800	$172	61
39 Wayne St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-12%)	10mo	$90,000	$96	52
1503 Gypsy Ln	0.75mi	3/1.5	988 (-7%)	3mo	$205,000	$207	50
1115 Estelle Ct	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-11%)	8mo	$136,000	$144	44
1442 Youll St	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,184 (+12%)	1mo	$168,000	$142	38
1422 Youll St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,198 (+13%)	10mo	$121,400	$101	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,274
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $30,140
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44446

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,006/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Circle St Unit 5 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	13d	1	0.70mi
35 Neil St #1 Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	1264	$950	$0.75	13d	1	1.03mi
1916 Youll St Niles, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1216	$1,130	$0.93	13d	1	1.10mi
701 Summit Ave Niles, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,220	$1.27	13d	1	1.14mi
2122 Robbins Ave Niles, OH	2.0	1.0	593	$905	$1.52	13d	1	1.26mi
925 Youngstown Warren Rd Niles, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,245	$1.25	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $89,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 272-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 272-char remark
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $99,900 Active 272-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,006 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$17/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,006
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,099
• − Management: −$1,099
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niles City
• NCES district ID: 3904449
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,965
• Composite: 37.02/100
• National rank: #4517
• State rank: #507 of 656 in OH

Livability — Niles

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 20,060
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,060
• Household income: $50,468
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 820.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.52%
• Current HPI: 198.7738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-27 Listed $99,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,006 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.