180 SE CR 4426 · Winnsboro, TX 75480

$389,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1992 1.56 ac lot $285/sqft · 51% above area Est $516k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STUNNING SETTING atop a hill on 1.56 acres, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers space, versatility, and comfort in every direction. You’ll love the generously-sized bedrooms and kitchen along with a downstairs flex room that can serve as a formal dining area, home office, or playroom, providing endless possibilities for how you live and work. Updated with a new roof approximately 6 years ago, this property also features an updated HVAC (1.5 years old with transferrable warranty!) and newer water heaters, giving peace of mind and efficiency. The 780 sq. ft. insulated shop has electricity and a 10-foot lean-to off the side, offering plenty of room for projects, equipment, or extra storage. While outdoors, you’ll also find an immaculately cared-for above-ground pool with deck, perfect for relaxing and entertaining on hot summer days. Located in the heart of the Northeast Texas lakes region, you’re just minutes from Lake Bob Sandlin and Lake Cypress Springs, with Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni less than an hour away. Plus, it’s UNDER 2 HOURS from DFW Metroplex, making this an ideal primary residence or weekend retreat. Room to breathe, space to entertain, a shop for your hobbies, —this one has it all!

Key facts

• Above ground pool
• Updated hvac
• Downstairs flex room

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS FLEX ROOM
• UPDATED HVAC
• 780 SQ FT INSULATED SHOP
• ABOVE GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winnsboro El (355 students, 71% FRL); Winnsboro J H (math 48% / reading 40%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 360 students, 53% FRL); Winnsboro H S (math 67% / reading 62%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 492 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,452 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $515,737
• List price: $389,500
• Delta: -24.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $59,345
• Equity at exit: $223,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $206,751
• Equity at exit: $388,602

Cash invested: $109,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,915/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,204

Max offer price $297,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-300	-5% $-411	+0% $-521	+5% $-631	+10% $-741
Rent	-10% $-722	-5% $-621	+0% $-521	+5% $-420	+10% $-320
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-422	base $-521	+0.5pp $-622	+1.0pp $-725

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,375
• Closing costs: $11,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,500 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,500 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,500 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,500 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,500 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,500 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,500 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,500 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,500 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,500 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,500 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,500 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,500 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,500 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,500 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,500 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,500 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $389,500 1268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    STUNNING SETTING atop a hill on 1.56 acres, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers space, versatility, and comfort in every direction. You’ll love the generously-sized bedrooms and kitchen along with a downstairs flex room that can serve as a formal dining area, home office, or playroom, providing endless possibilities for how you live and work. Updated with a new roof approximately 6 years ago, this property also features an updated HVAC (1.5 years old with transferrable warranty!) and newer water heaters, giving peace of mind and efficiency. The 780 sq. ft. insulated shop has electricity and a 10-foot lean-to off the side, offering plenty of room for projects, equipment, or extra storage. While outdoors, you’ll also find an immaculately cared-for above-ground pool with deck, perfect for relaxing and entertaining on hot summer days. Located in the heart of the Northeast Texas lakes region, you’re just minutes from Lake Bob Sandlin and Lake Cypress Springs, with Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni less than an hour away. Plus, it’s UNDER 2 HOURS from DFW Metroplex, making this an ideal primary residence or weekend retreat. Room to breathe, space to entertain, a shop for your hobbies, —this one has it all!

19. 2026-04-23
    price $389,500 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    STUNNING SETTING atop a hill on 1.56 acres, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers space, versatility, and comfort in every direction. You’ll love the generously-sized bedrooms and kitchen along with a downstairs flex room that can serve as a formal dining area, home office, or playroom, providing endless possibilities for how you live and work. Updated with a new roof approximately 6 years ago, this property also features an updated HVAC (1.5 years old with transferrable warranty!) and newer water heaters, giving peace of mind and efficiency. The 780 sq. ft. insulated shop has electricity and a 10-foot lean-to off the side, offering plenty of room for projects, equipment, or extra storage. While outdoors, you’ll also find an immaculately cared-for above-ground pool with deck, perfect for relaxing and entertaining on hot summer days. Located in the heart of the Northeast Texas lakes region, you’re just minutes from Lake Bob Sandlin and Lake Cypress Springs, with Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni less than an hour away. Plus, it’s UNDER 2 HOURS from DFW Metroplex, making this an ideal primary residence or weekend retreat. Room to breathe, space to entertain, a shop for your hobbies, —this one has it all!

20. 2026-02-02
    listed $399,500 Active 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

    STUNNING SETTING atop a hill on 1.56 acres, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers space, versatility, and comfort in every direction. You’ll love the generously-sized bedrooms and kitchen along with a downstairs flex room that can serve as a formal dining area, home office, or playroom, providing endless possibilities for how you live and work. Updated with a new roof approximately 6 years ago, this property also features an updated HVAC (1.5 years old with transferrable warranty!) and newer water heaters, giving peace of mind and efficiency. The 780 sq. ft. insulated shop has electricity and a 10-foot lean-to off the side, offering plenty of room for projects, equipment, or extra storage. While outdoors, you’ll also find an immaculately cared-for above-ground pool with deck, perfect for relaxing and entertaining on hot summer days. Located in the heart of the Northeast Texas lakes region, you’re just minutes from Lake Bob Sandlin and Lake Cypress Springs, with Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni less than an hour away. Plus, it’s UNDER 2 HOURS from DFW Metroplex, making this an ideal primary residence or weekend retreat. Room to breathe, space to entertain, a shop for your hobbies, —this one has it all!

21. 2026-02-02
    listed $399,500 Active 1268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1268 chars)

    STUNNING SETTING atop a hill on 1.56 acres, this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers space, versatility, and comfort in every direction. You’ll love the generously-sized bedrooms and kitchen along with a downstairs flex room that can serve as a formal dining area, home office, or playroom, providing endless possibilities for how you live and work. Updated with a new roof approximately 6 years ago, this property also features an updated HVAC (1.5 years old with transferrable warranty!) and newer water heaters, giving peace of mind and efficiency. The 780 sq. ft. insulated shop has electricity and a 10-foot lean-to off the side, offering plenty of room for projects, equipment, or extra storage. While outdoors, you’ll also find an immaculately cared-for above-ground pool with deck, perfect for relaxing and entertaining on hot summer days. Located in the heart of the Northeast Texas lakes region, you’re just minutes from Lake Bob Sandlin and Lake Cypress Springs, with Lake Fork and Lake Tawakoni less than an hour away. Plus, it’s UNDER 2 HOURS from DFW Metroplex, making this an ideal primary residence or weekend retreat. Room to breathe, space to entertain, a shop for your hobbies, —this one has it all!

22. 2026-01-01
    historical
23. 2025-11-12
    price $449,000
24. 2025-11-12
    price $449,000
25. 2025-10-15
    listed $469,000 Active
26. 2014-08-22
    soldstatus
27. 2014-08-21
    soldstatus
28. 2014-06-30
    listed $199,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,915 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,128 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,212/yr (+$268/mo · 82.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,818
• − Property taxes: −$3,915
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − Depreciation: −$11,331
• Taxable loss: −$13,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,207
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $389,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $389,500 GTAR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $399,500 GTAR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $399,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $449,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $449,000 GTAR
• 2025-10-15 Listed $469,000 NTREIS
• 2014-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-08-21 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2014-06-30 Listed $199,999 GTAR

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,915 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.