7923 Suffolk Valley Ln · Alvin, TX 77583

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2022 Fair condition 6,573 sqft lot $189/sqft · 6% below area Est $260k · 6% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained one-story offers a modern stucco and brick elevation, a spacious backyard, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find vinyl wood flooring throughout, along with 2-inch faux blinds, washer, dryer, and a garage door opener included. The gourmet kitchen features Silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, a side-by-side refrigerator, shaker-style cabinets, and a large eat-in island with a deep undermount sink. The open-concept layout flows into the dining area and bright family room with walls of windows. The private owner’s suite features tray ceilings and a spa-like bath with dual sinks, quartz vanity, a large walk-in shower, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a smart home system and energy-efficient features such as a tankless water heater and HERS rating. Per seller, no flooding. Community amenities include a pool, lap pool, water slides, pavilion, playground, and soccer fields.

Key facts

• Vinyl wood flooring
• Spacious backyard
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $213,177 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.15%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,479
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -5.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7726 Golden Rubia Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$189	86
726 Hearth Manor Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	12mo	$254,500	$196	85
8038 Molasses Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+0%)	7mo	$245,000	$188	84
711 Boer Plains Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,297 (0%)	10mo	$254,900	$197	84
706 Zinnia Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+3%)	3mo	$234,999	$176	81
8303 Amaryllis Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-2%)	7mo	$204,900	$161	73
8015 Milam Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$260,000	$185	66
8018 Buck Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	6mo	$269,990	$192	62
8218 Radial Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$196	62
8223 Radial Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	13mo	$229,900	$192	53
1502 Barbados Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+9%)	12mo	$281,990	$200	40
8302 Tartan Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,486 (+15%)	13mo	$239,900	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-56,830
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-86,283
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$581 /mo · $6,969/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $213,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-111	+0% $-180	+5% $-249	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-273	+0% $-180	+5% $-87	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-118	base $-180	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	45d	1	0.40mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.43mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	23d	1	0.44mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	14d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Active 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   This beautifully maintained one-story offers a modern stucco and brick elevation, a spacious backyard, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find vinyl wood flooring throughout, along with 2-inch faux blinds, washer, dryer, and a garage door opener included. The gourmet kitchen features Silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, a side-by-side refrigerator, shaker-style cabinets, and a large eat-in island with a deep undermount sink. The open-concept layout flows into the dining area and bright family room with walls of windows. The private owner’s suite features tray ceilings and a spa-like bath with dual sinks, quartz vanity, a large walk-in shower, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a smart home system and energy-efficient features such as a tankless water heater and HERS rating. Per seller, no flooding. Community amenities include a pool, lap pool, water slides, pavilion, playground, and soccer fields.

2. 2026-04-14
   status Pending 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   This beautifully maintained one-story offers a modern stucco and brick elevation, a spacious backyard, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find vinyl wood flooring throughout, along with 2-inch faux blinds, washer, dryer, and a garage door opener included. The gourmet kitchen features Silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, a side-by-side refrigerator, shaker-style cabinets, and a large eat-in island with a deep undermount sink. The open-concept layout flows into the dining area and bright family room with walls of windows. The private owner’s suite features tray ceilings and a spa-like bath with dual sinks, quartz vanity, a large walk-in shower, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a smart home system and energy-efficient features such as a tankless water heater and HERS rating. Per seller, no flooding. Community amenities include a pool, lap pool, water slides, pavilion, playground, and soccer fields.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $244,990 Active 1011-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

   This beautifully maintained one-story offers a modern stucco and brick elevation, a spacious backyard, and a covered patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you’ll find vinyl wood flooring throughout, along with 2-inch faux blinds, washer, dryer, and a garage door opener included. The gourmet kitchen features Silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, a side-by-side refrigerator, shaker-style cabinets, and a large eat-in island with a deep undermount sink. The open-concept layout flows into the dining area and bright family room with walls of windows. The private owner’s suite features tray ceilings and a spa-like bath with dual sinks, quartz vanity, a large walk-in shower, and an oversized walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a smart home system and energy-efficient features such as a tankless water heater and HERS rating. Per seller, no flooding. Community amenities include a pool, lap pool, water slides, pavilion, playground, and soccer fields.

4. 2025-01-24
   historical $2,395
5. 2025-01-14
   listed $2,395
6. 2023-11-20
   soldstatus
7. 2023-11-15
   soldstatus Sold 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Welcome home. This gorgeous 3-bedroom 2-bath home has it all. The house has a beautiful open-concept kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Very modern cabinets. Quartz kitchen countertop with a tile backsplash. The primary bedroom is spacious and the bathroom features two separate sinks with a walking shower. Relax with the family in the spacious backyard and covered back patio. The house is conveniently located close to Hwy 6 and Hwy 288. Schedule your showing today.

8. 2023-10-30
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Welcome home. This gorgeous 3-bedroom 2-bath home has it all. The house has a beautiful open-concept kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Very modern cabinets. Quartz kitchen countertop with a tile backsplash. The primary bedroom is spacious and the bathroom features two separate sinks with a walking shower. Relax with the family in the spacious backyard and covered back patio. The house is conveniently located close to Hwy 6 and Hwy 288. Schedule your showing today.

9. 2023-10-26
   status Option Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Welcome home. This gorgeous 3-bedroom 2-bath home has it all. The house has a beautiful open-concept kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Very modern cabinets. Quartz kitchen countertop with a tile backsplash. The primary bedroom is spacious and the bathroom features two separate sinks with a walking shower. Relax with the family in the spacious backyard and covered back patio. The house is conveniently located close to Hwy 6 and Hwy 288. Schedule your showing today.

10. 2023-09-10
    listed $260,000 Active 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Welcome home. This gorgeous 3-bedroom 2-bath home has it all. The house has a beautiful open-concept kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Very modern cabinets. Quartz kitchen countertop with a tile backsplash. The primary bedroom is spacious and the bathroom features two separate sinks with a walking shower. Relax with the family in the spacious backyard and covered back patio. The house is conveniently located close to Hwy 6 and Hwy 288. Schedule your showing today.

11. 2023-01-04
    soldstatus Sold
12. 2022-11-10
    price $246,990
13. 2022-11-02
    status Pending, Continue to Show
14. 2022-10-26
    price $249,990
15. 2022-10-19
    price $264,990
16. 2022-10-11
    listed $277,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,969 · $581/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,969 · $581/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$6,969
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $-677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with good interior and exterior features. Some landscaping and curb appeal improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the lawn appear slightly overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Some areas of the lawn appear slightly overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Rental Removed $2,395 HARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed for Rent $2,395 HARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-10 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $246,990 HARMLS
• 2022-11-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-26 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2022-10-19 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Listed $277,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,969 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.