The Real Deal Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$95,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 396 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Listed 396 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $84,475 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.96%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $31,664
• Equity at exit: $14,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $74,198
• Equity at exit: $8,300

Cash invested: $26,879 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $95,995

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,999
• Closing costs: $2,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Brazos Point Dr Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,850	$1.62	24d	1	0.02mi
909 Klare Ave Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,895	$1.03	43d	1	0.58mi
1200 Carlisle St Rosenberg, TX	2.0	1.0	1826	$1,650	$0.90	43d	1	1.01mi
1202 3rd St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,995 Active 396 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,995 Active 395 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,995 Active 394 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,995 Active 393 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,995 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,995 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,995 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,995 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,995 Active 382 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,995 Active 381 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,995 Active 380 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,995 Active 379 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,995 Active 378 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    status Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-04-08
    historical 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2025-07-10
    status Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2025-06-24
    historical 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

18. 2025-05-01
    listed $95,995 Active 500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (500 chars)

    Step into comfort and style with this beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home at Brazos Point in Rosenberg, TX. With 1,344 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed space, this home offers open-concept living, a modern kitchen with sleek finishes, and a spacious master suite with a private bath. Perfect for everyday living and entertaining, it's built for ease, energy efficiency, and long-term value. Located in a quiet, maintenance-free community with easy access to local conveniences. Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,377
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$2,793
• Taxable income: $8,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,145
• After-tax cash flow: $7,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and open-concept living space. It is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value.
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms enhances the overall aesthetic and appeal for potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring in bathrooms enhances the overall aesthetic and appeal for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-01 Listed $95,995 Zillow