30901 State Route 20 Unit B3 · Oak Harbor, WA 98277

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · Manufactured public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1984 $83/sqft · 20% above area Est $75k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for ‘55 & better, ’ this home is just minutes from beaches, shops, & miles of protected waterfront trails. .. & a better value cannot be found in Oak Harbor! Experience the magic of salt-water & mountain views + unrivaled sun rises. With 1084 perfectly appointed square feet, highlights include: an open-concept floor-plan, 3 bedrooms spaced for privacy, 2 full baths, an open kitchen with adjacent breakfast nook & built-in storage. The living room is spacious & comfortable--complete with vaulted ceilings, picture windows & cozy pellet stove. More? A front deck with access ramp, a covered back porch overlooking a phenomenal city &am

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Salt-water views
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• SALT-WATER VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR-PLAN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#149 in WA, #3,120 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+.
• Oak Harbor School District (town): math 49% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #98 of 291 in WA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (49%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $90k implies a 414% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.36%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,152
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 19.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $71,567
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $189,829
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98277

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,271 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $227/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30875 State Route 20 Unit M3 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,415	$1.68	43d	1	0.06mi
1651 SW Mulberry Pl Unit E101 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,215	$1.71	43d	1	0.34mi
1725 SW Nienhuis St Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,515	$1.90	43d	1	0.40mi
141 SW 6th Ave Unit D101 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	982	$1,915	$1.95	43d	1	0.62mi
395 S Oak Harbor St Unit 207 [[?]165] Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,030	$2.03	43d	1	0.83mi
1282 NW Lanyard Loop #2 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.5	1330	$2,315	$1.74	43d	1	1.00mi
1051 SE 8th Ave Unit C201 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,500	$1.55	43d	1	1.14mi
300 N Oak Harbor St Unit B102 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,015	$1.57	43d	1	1.20mi
413 SE Maylor St Apt 202 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,650	$1.87	43d	1	1.33mi
310 SE Midway Blvd Unit 207 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	791	$1,640	$2.07	43d	1	1.36mi
790 NW Dory Dr Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,415	$1.80	43d	1	1.47mi
865 N Oak Harbor St Unit 203 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,565	$2.09	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $89,900 Pending 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,900 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   price $89,900 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,999 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $109,999 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-05-11
   price $109,999
9. 2026-03-31
   price $119,500
10. 2026-03-19
    price $135,000
11. 2026-03-11
    price $144,500
12. 2026-02-09
    price $150,000
13. 2026-01-16
    listed $175,000 Active
14. 2010-08-12
    historical
15. 2010-06-15
    soldstatus $17,500 Sold
16. 2010-05-09
    status Pending Inspection
17. 2010-05-03
    listed $19,950 Active
18. 2002-06-30
    soldstatus $20,000
19. 1998-03-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $227 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 288.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$227
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,180
• − Management: −$2,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $14,562
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,495
• After-tax cash flow: $11,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oak Harbor School District
• NCES district ID: 5305940
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,606
• Composite: 49.07/100
• National rank: #4427
• State rank: #98 of 291 in WA

Livability — Oak Harbor

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #3120

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Harbor, WA
• County: Island County · 71,196 people
• City population: 40,917
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,917
• Household income: $83,253
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,019 people
• By 2030: 81,329 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 78,552 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 77,042 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 80,799 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 84,451 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Island

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 56.8% · R 40.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -608.47%
• Current HPI: 188.2874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.36%
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+358.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $109,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $119,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $144,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-12 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-15 Sold (MLS) $17,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-03 Listed $19,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $227 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.