2203 NW Turner Ave · Lake City, FL 32055

$289,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 340 Days on market

Built 2022 0.50 ac lot Est $246k · 18% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of comfort and convenience in this spacious 4BR/2BA Iron Man Model home on a peaceful half-acre just minutes from town with workshops. The open floor plan features an island kitchen with pull-out cabinets, perfect for cooking and entertaining. The large primary suite includes a relaxing garden tub and separate shower. Enjoy covered front and back porches and two versatile metal buildings (20x40 and 24x30)—great for a workshop, storage, or hobbies. One features 100-amp electric, and both are lighted and ready to use. With a circle driveway and camper/RV setup complete with dump station, this property is built for easy living and extra space. Note: For accurat

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Two metal buildings
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• TWO METAL BUILDINGS
• WILDLIFE FRIENDLY SETTING
• DEDICATED DUMP STATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); Zoning: RSMH2
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Shed(s) and workshop on the property; Irregular-shaped lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Electric cooktop, Refrigerator, Microwave; Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (26.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 696 students, 50% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,959 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.50%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,240
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 NW Pinellas Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,356 (+3%)	14mo	$255,000	$108	58
159 NW Dudley Loop	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,336 (+2%)	16mo	$230,000	$98	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $129,844
• Equity at exit: $261,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $404,170
• Equity at exit: $563,404

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,781/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $212,360

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-275	-5% $-357	+0% $-439	+5% $-522	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-507	+0% $-439	+5% $-372	+10% $-304
Rate	-1.0pp $-293	-0.5pp $-366	base $-439	+0.5pp $-515	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,999 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,999 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,999 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,999 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,999 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,999 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,999 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,999 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,999 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,999 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,999 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,999 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,999 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,999 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,999 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,999 Active 319 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,999 Active 318 DOM
18. 2026-01-06
    status Active
19. 2025-12-04
    price $289,999
20. 2025-10-10
    price $299,999
21. 2025-10-08
    price $310,000
22. 2025-08-25
    price $310,800
23. 2025-07-16
    listed $310,900 Active
24. 2025-05-22
    price $310,500
25. 2025-02-25
    price $314,900
26. 2025-01-17
    listed $319,900 Active
27. 2024-06-13
    price $324,900
28. 2024-05-17
    listed $329,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,781 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,781
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $289,999 NFMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $299,999 NFMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $310,000 NFMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $310,800 NFMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $310,900 NFMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $310,500 NFMLS
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $314,900 NFMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $319,900 NFMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $324,900 NFMLS
• 2024-05-17 Listed $329,900 NFMLS

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,781 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.