15765 Palfrey Chase Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32234

$285,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,969 sqft lot Est $306k · 7% under $11/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Spacious island
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Lifestyle Property Management; Annual association fee of $130 (includes grounds maintenance); Community clubhouse, fitness center, and playground; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Community pool (not private); Full privacy fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Agnes Jones Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 430 students, 61% FRL); Joseph Stilwell Middle School (math 31% / reading 33%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 612 students, 68% FRL); Marine Science Education Center (31 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $223k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,142 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15620 Saddled Charger Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,856 (0%)	2mo	$264,900	$143	84
15771 Palfrey Chase Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-8%)	4mo	$274,000	$160	78
6512 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	1,733 (-7%)	10mo	$287,000	$166	68
6266 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-8%)	14mo	$269,000	$157	66
15679 Saddled Charger Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-8%)	8mo	$265,000	$155	66
15712 Equine Gait Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-13%)	9mo	$269,000	$166	62
6021 Bucking Bronco Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-13%)	13mo	$260,000	$161	51
15384 Bareback Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,783 (-4%)	12mo	$295,000	$165	49
15543 Bareback Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-8%)	5mo	$285,000	$167	49
6119 Black Filly Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-8%)	1mo	$290,000	$169	49
15373 Hidden Foal Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-8%)	1mo	$287,147	$168	48
6214 Wild Mustang Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,618 (-13%)	12mo	$250,000	$155	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,329
• Equity at exit: $89,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,947
• Equity at exit: $112,569

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,042/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $237,267

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-190	+0% $-270	+5% $-351	+10% $-432
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-363	+0% $-270	+5% $-177	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-198	base $-270	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15729 Equine Gait Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,950	$1.18	3d	1	0.11mi
6092 Bucking Bronco Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,995	$1.12	9d	1	0.20mi
15647 Woodbury Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1863	$2,222	$1.19	3d	27	0.23mi
15246 Hidden Foal Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1730	$1,900	$1.10	13d	1	0.90mi
15180 Bareback Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$1,999	$1.09	4d	1	0.93mi
5724 Lagoon Cruise Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2494	$2,800	$1.12	6d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-22
   status $285,000 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active
17. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $289,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

19. 2026-04-17
    historical 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

20. 2026-04-02
    price $289,900 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

21. 2026-03-18
    price $290,000 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

22. 2026-03-11
    price $295,000 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

23. 2026-03-06
    price $299,000 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

24. 2026-02-25
    listed $300,000 Active 978-char remark

    Show marketing remark (978 chars)

    Welcome home to this adorable modern gem that perfectly blends style, comfort, and functionality! Step inside to a bright and airy open floor plan designed for effortless living and entertaining. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and contemporary kitchen, creating the perfect gathering spot for family and friends. Natural light pours in, highlighting the beautiful luxury vinyl flooring throughout offering both elegance and durability with easy maintenance. This thoughtfully designed home features 4 generously sized bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing flexibility for growing families, guests, or even a home office setup. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with ample closet space and a private bath. Meticulously well-maintained, this home feels fresh and move-in ready. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard ideal for pets, playtime, gardening, or relaxing evenings under the stars. Don't miss your chance to make it yours!

25. 2024-06-19
    historical 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Winchester Ridge, this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you step inside, you'll feel at home! Sunlight floods the interior, creating a warm and inviting ambiance that you'll love coming home to. Entertain in style with an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating the perfect space for gatherings and making memories. Each of the four bedrooms boasts ample space, providing room for relaxation and rejuvenation. Say goodbye to carpet woes! This home features luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, offering durability, easy maintenance, and timeless appeal. The heart of the home is adorned with an upgraded deep sink, and a large kitchen island, adding both style and functionality to your culinary endeavors. Don't miss your chance to make this exquisite property your own! Schedule a showing today!

26. 2024-06-08
    listed $310,000 Active 961-char remark

    Show marketing remark (961 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of Winchester Ridge, this stunning 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. From the moment you step inside, you'll feel at home! Sunlight floods the interior, creating a warm and inviting ambiance that you'll love coming home to. Entertain in style with an open floor plan that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating the perfect space for gatherings and making memories. Each of the four bedrooms boasts ample space, providing room for relaxation and rejuvenation. Say goodbye to carpet woes! This home features luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, offering durability, easy maintenance, and timeless appeal. The heart of the home is adorned with an upgraded deep sink, and a large kitchen island, adding both style and functionality to your culinary endeavors. Don't miss your chance to make this exquisite property your own! Schedule a showing today!

27. 2023-07-07
    historical
28. 2023-05-25
    listed $330,000 Active
29. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus $222,990
30. 2021-12-27
    listed $222,990
31. 2021-02-25
    soldstatus $222,990 Sold
32. 2021-01-15
    status Pending
33. 2021-01-08
    price $227,990
34. 2021-01-08
    status Active
35. 2020-11-02
    status Pending
36. 2020-10-08
    price $220,990
37. 2020-09-25
    listed $218,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,042 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,042 · $504/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$6,042
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$8,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home in Winchester Ridge is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor cosmetic updates could further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal and adds a fresh look.
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and prevents water damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal and adds a fresh look. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps the property in good condition and prevents water damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $289,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $289,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $290,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $295,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $299,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $300,000 realMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed $310,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-07 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-05-25 Listed $330,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-27 Listed $222,990 realMLS
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) $222,990 realMLS
• 2021-02-25 Sold (MLS) $222,990 realMLS
• 2021-01-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-01-08 Price Changed $227,990 realMLS
• 2021-01-08 Relisted — realMLS
• 2020-11-02 Pending — realMLS
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $220,990 realMLS
• 2020-09-25 Listed $218,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+24.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,042 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.