6271 Tidewater Trl · Saluda, VA 23032

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,093 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1925 0.72 ac lot $81/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this lovely three-bedroom one bath Cape. Tons of potential. This home has a large family room that comes off the open kitchen. You walk out the back door to the massive rear deck that has built in benches. Perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen opens up to the large family room. It has a really nice size pantry. The home also features a good size living room that allows for two entertaining spaces within the home. There is a nice dining room as well. The bathroom is large with potential to update. The upstairs is part finished off. There is one bedroom upstairs. There is also a large open walk-in attic as well. The front of the house features a porch. The paved drivewa

Key facts

• Large family room
• Massive rear deck
• Built in benches

Tags

• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• MASSIVE REAR DECK
• BUILT IN BENCHES
• GOOD SIZE LIVING ROOM
• TWO ENTERTAINING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned LDR

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street paved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: At least one bedroom on the first level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Partially carpeted; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($104/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Saluda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#557 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,579 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,375
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -55.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $27,937
• Equity at exit: $83,796

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $90,321
• Equity at exit: $135,215

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23032

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $57	+0% $9	+5% $-39	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-46	+0% $9	+5% $63	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $52	base $9	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricedays on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,500 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,500 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
18. 2026-05-31
    days on marketlisting id $175,500 Active 1 DOM
19. 2025-11-11
    listed $175,500 Active 335-char remark
20. 2025-11-09
    historical
21. 2025-09-22
    status Active
22. 2025-09-03
    status Pending
23. 2025-07-16
    price $175,500
24. 2025-06-12
    price $185,250
25. 2025-04-09
    listed $196,175 Active
26. 2025-04-07
    historical
27. 2025-03-11
    price $196,175
28. 2025-03-11
    price $196,175
29. 2025-02-13
    listed $206,500 Active
30. 2025-02-06
    listed $206,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$2,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saluda

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #26208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 178

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Current HPI: 206.0333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-17.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $169,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $175,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $175,500 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-09-22 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-09-03 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $175,500 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $185,250 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $196,175 CVRMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $196,175 WMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $196,175 CVRMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $206,500 WMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $206,500 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.