2912 Mckenzie Ave Ave · Flatwoods, KY 41139

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

8,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade finished area: 936
• Exterior features: Level lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($972 rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 3.3% in Flatwoods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#125 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Russell Independent (suburban): math 40% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #22 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Greenup County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greenup County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.45%
• DSCR: 4.58
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.69×
• Total profit: $30,916
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $73,009
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41139

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $6,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $5,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell Independent
• NCES district ID: 2105130
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $49,382
• Composite: 38.14/100
• National rank: #4268
• State rank: #22 of 165 in KY

Livability — Flatwoods

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #5872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flatwoods, KY
• County: Greenup · 24,497 people
• City population: 5,527
• Metro: Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH
• Population (ZIP): 8,258
• Household income: $59,550
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4.4

Population outlook (Greenup County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,374 people
• By 2030: 33,145 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 30,407 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 27,702 · -19.4%
• By 2075: 21,970 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 16,670 · -51.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greenup

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.1% · R 74.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.4pp toward R · 2008: -14.1pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+45.5 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.89%
• Current HPI: 189.3977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $29,900 AABOR