19980 Courtneyville Rd · Lexington Park, MD 20667

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,956 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1966 0.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

bed, 2 bath home located Courtneyville, MD. This home would be great for a contractor / investor. The home is in need of majorupdates and repairs. Please ENTER THE HOME WITH CAUTION / ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Property

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Improvement assessed at $1,500; Land assessed at $98,600; Tax assessed value $100,100 (2025); County tax / annual tax $960

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Other water source; Power and utility details not specified
• Home design: Detached structure; Fee simple ownership; Assessor-listed year built source
• Construction: Slab foundation; 1,956 finished above-grade square footage (assessor)
• Exterior features: Not in tidal water area; Above-grade and below-grade other structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 2 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling; Other hot water
• Interior features: Assessor-listed living area; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Ridge Middle (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #81 of 225 statewide, top 38%, 987 students, 60% FRL); Great Mills High (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,779 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 28% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $826 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $100k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.82%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $481,176
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18145 Point Lookout Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-10%)	8mo	$435,000	$246	57
20220 Gilliam Dr	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,080 (+6%)	23mo	$425,000	$204	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $39,409
• Equity at exit: $33,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $101,517
• Equity at exit: $43,483

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20667

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,222/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $845

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 142-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $100,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,222
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $5,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 26,852
• Population (ZIP): 98

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 67% Romanian 33%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Current HPI: 110.3314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+26.1% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-24 Sold (MLS) $12,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-11 Price Changed $13,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-31 Price Changed $15,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-05-07 Price Changed $17,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-06 Price Changed $26,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-07 Price Changed $29,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-02-07 Price Changed $34,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-22 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-12 Price Changed $43,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-12-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-29 Price Changed $43,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-10 Price Changed $44,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-10-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-10 Price Changed $44,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-14 Price Changed $55,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-17 Price Changed $58,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-20 Price Changed $61,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-17 Price Changed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-05-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-30 Price Changed $74,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-22 Price Changed $77,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-08 Listed $79,300 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,222 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.