515 W Armstrong Ave · Peoria, IL 61606

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 5,227 sqft lot Est $160k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer windows * Needs some TLC * * Sold "AS IS" * Proof of funds or letter of prequalification needed to submit all offers * Special addendums apply *

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Peoria High School (math 4% / reading 7%, grade F, #609 of 693 statewide, top 88%, 1,447 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,603/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 620% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $130k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.04%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,380
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1321 N Ellis St	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-6%)	0mo	$143,000	$76	81
1404 N Amber Pl	0.08mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	1mo	$175,000	$98	73
803 W Meadows Pl	0.61mi	4/1.5	1,924 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$86	64
1213 W Armstrong Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,064 (+4%)	3mo	$64,000	$31	57
1027 N University St	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,070 (+4%)	4mo	$235,000	$114	55
1309 W Columbia Ter	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,128 (+8%)	1mo	$183,500	$86	52
220 E Frye St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,842 (-7%)	3mo	$56,500	$31	47
1112 W Columbia Ter	0.52mi	4/1.0	1,726 (-13%)	5mo	$114,000	$66	47
1916 N Peoria Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,817 (-8%)	3mo	$147,000	$81	46
1829 N Missouri Ave	0.68mi	4/1.5	1,736 (-12%)	5mo	$55,000	$32	42
917 W Brons Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,240 (+13%)	1mo	$22,000	$10	37
725 W Spring Hollow Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-13%)	4mo	$169,500	$99	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $300
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $27,877
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61606

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,603 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 W Columbia Ter Unit 3 Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	43d	1	0.11mi
1806 N Peoria Ave Peoria, IL	4.0	1.5	1668	$894	$0.54	13d	1	0.58mi
308 E Archer Ave Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1444	$950	$0.66	13d	1	0.94mi
913 W McClure Ave Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	21d	1	0.96mi
1019 N Farmington Rd Unit 1017 Peoria, IL	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	43d	1	1.11mi
100 Walnut St Unit 402 Peoria, IL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,400	$1.64	21d	1	1.34mi
1816 W Callender Ave Peoria, IL	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,650	$1.01	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2026-03-25
   historical $129,900
4. 2009-05-05
   soldstatus $50,000 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   Newer windows * Needs some TLC * * Sold "AS IS" * Proof of funds or letter of prequalification needed to submit all offers * Special addendums apply *

5. 2009-01-14
   listed $58,900 160-char remark

   Show marketing remark (160 chars)

   Newer windows * Needs some TLC * * Sold "AS IS" * Proof of funds or letter of prequalification needed to submit all offers * Special addendums apply *

6. 1988-11-22
   soldstatus $45,000
7. 1988-11-22
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,655 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,539
• − Management: −$1,539
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$503
• After-tax cash flow: $3,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria SD 150
• NCES district ID: 1731230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 10.92/100
• National rank: #9751
• State rank: #554 of 620 in IL

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5096

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, IL
• County: Peoria County · 120,495 people
• City population: 114,670
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• Population (ZIP): 6,684
• Household income: $39,196
• Rent vs Own: 57.9% rent · 42.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 620.0

Population outlook (Peoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 183,007 people
• By 2030: 179,643 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 171,782 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 163,508 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 140,178 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 114,493 · -37.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 17% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Peoria

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 46.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 4.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.7 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.67%
• Current HPI: 166.329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+188.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $129,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $129,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-05 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-14 Listed $58,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,362 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.