15505 Cedarwood Ln Unit 10-201 · Naples, FL 34110

$389,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · Condo · 92 Days on market

Built 2001 $863/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

EXQUISITE 2ND-FLOOR 3-BEDROOM END UNIT WITH LANAI AND BREATHTAKING VIEW OF PRIVATE NATURE PRESERVE! Rarely available, this impeccable 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Martinique floor plan offers 1,613 square feet of elegant living space and presents an unparalleled opportunity to experience the coveted Bay Forest lifestyle. Perched on the second floor, this end-unit home is perfectly positioned to capture serene vistas of the private nature reserve, offering a tranquil retreat to unwind at any time of day from the expansive, screened lanai. This pristine residence is in like-new condition, having never been rented and rarely occupied. Highlights include a newly installed 2.5-ton Carrier A/C unit (Ju

Key facts

• Second floor
• End unit
• New water heater

Tags

• SECOND FLOOR
• END UNIT
• LANAI
• PRIVATE NATURE PRESERVE
• NEWLY INSTALLED A/C UNIT
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Condo management); Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, master association fee, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserve, sewer, street lights, trash removal, and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, tennis court, pickleball, bocce court, bike/jog path, BBQ/picnic area, and streetlights; Gated community; Total annual recurring fees: $10,360; Total one-time fees: $3,150

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Detached garage; Common and guest parking available; Auto garage door
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water (assessment paid); Central sewer (assessment paid); Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1–3 stories); End-unit; Rear exposure faces northwest; Located in the Bay Forest development (Bermuda Bay sub-condo)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2001
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Single-hung windows; Tile roof; Gated community; Cul-de-sac lot; Mangrove and preserve views; No private dock/canal

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fire sprinkler system; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Open porch/lanai; Common elevator
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $355k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 55% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,287/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.81%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-42,803
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,157
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,848/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$863
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,110
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,587

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.14mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	14d	1	0.16mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	23d	1	0.16mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	23d	1	0.19mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.21mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	23d	3	0.24mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	0.29mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	23d	3	0.33mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.42mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.48mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.51mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	23d	1	0.51mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	23d	1	0.53mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	24d	1	0.54mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	15d	1	0.64mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.68mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$5,500	$3.13	23d	2	0.68mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	21d	1	0.73mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	23d	1	0.75mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	0.77mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	24d	1	0.77mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	0.78mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	24d	1	0.81mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	23d	2	0.83mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	23d	3	0.83mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	14d	1	0.83mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	23d	1	0.84mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.88mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	24d	1	0.88mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	24d	1	0.89mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	24d	1	0.90mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	23d	1	0.91mi
211 6th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$11,900	$5.95	23d	1	0.93mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	24d	1	0.93mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	23d	2	1.00mi
28450 Winthrop Cir Unit 1546014P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$7,804	$4.12	14d	1	1.00mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	1.03mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	16d	1	1.05mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$25,000	$13.41	14d	2	1.05mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd #4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2003	$25,000	$12.48	14d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $863 · $10,356/yr
• Likely covers: cable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-21
   listed $389,900 Active
2. 2025-06-29
   historical
3. 2025-01-31
   listed $439,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,848
• − Insurance: −$2,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,076
• − Management: −$5,076
• − HOA: −$10,356
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $1,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$279
• After-tax cash flow: $6,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $389,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-29 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $439,900 NAPLESMLS