4719 Castleman Dr · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1996 5,227 sqft lot Est $264k · 30% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer Roof with No Neighbors Behind!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• No neighbors behind
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NO NEIGHBORS BEHIND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Austins Colony HOA; HOA fee $31 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered spaces; 4 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property
• Construction: Built as masonry construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built from public records
• Exterior features: Community pool; Wood fencing; Level lot with small trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Main level primary bedroom; Blinds on windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.4% in Hornsby Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $185k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4705 Fallenash Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-4%)	4mo	$191,999	$142	88
14205 Highsmith St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (+3%)	6mo	$225,000	$156	56
4503 Halliday Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-8%)	3mo	$257,500	$200	55
903 Yabers Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	8mo	$292,000	$201	52
15013 Roody Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+5%)	10mo	$285,000	$193	52
15208 Walcott Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	5mo	$285,000	$189	51
14505 Sandifer St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+8%)	4mo	$250,000	$165	50
3702 Sojourner St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-9%)	6mo	$239,000	$187	48
4617 Inicio Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,303 (-7%)	6mo	$245,000	$188	47
814 Hatton Hill Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	6mo	$270,000	$216	45
14704 Varrelman St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-14%)	2mo	$219,900	$183	43
14903 Mossycup Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (+13%)	3mo	$283,900	$178	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-26,317
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,547
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,652/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $197	+0% $145	+5% $93	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $69	+0% $145	+5% $221	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $192	base $145	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	0.04mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.04mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	2d	1	0.22mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.38mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.38mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.38mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	5d	1	0.39mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	5d	1	0.50mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.61mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.61mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.62mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.62mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.63mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.63mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.63mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.64mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	44d	1	0.66mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.75mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.75mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	0.77mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	44d	1	0.79mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	0.79mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	5d	1	0.80mi
5706 Melody Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	0.83mi
5706 Melody Ln Unit 3 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.83mi
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.85mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	5d	1	0.88mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	17d	1	0.89mi
13221 Brahmin Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,695	$1.24	44d	1	0.91mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	0.92mi
5800 Montrelia Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,825	$1.23	15d	1	0.94mi
5721 Roderick Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	22d	1	0.94mi
5721 Roderick Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,895	$1.29	24d	1	0.94mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.95mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.96mi
5813 Roderick Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,800	$1.22	24d	1	0.97mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	11d	1	1.01mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	1.01mi
5916 Montrelia Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	15d	1	1.02mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	44d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 36-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $185,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,652
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+106.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $185,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-05 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-19 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-03 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-19 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-22 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2023-12-13 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-11 Price Changed $283,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-23 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-19 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-10-12 Listed $295,000 Unlock MLS
• 2003-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records
• 2003-05-20 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2003-03-07 Listed $99,900 Unlock MLS
• 1996-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,652 · -11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.