221 Mockingbird Mdws · Burleson, TX 76028

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1982 0.73 ac lot Est $275k · 31% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

Key facts

• New siding
• Plumbing rough-in
• New doors

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• PLUMBING ROUGH-IN
• FRAMING
• NEW DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single Family Residence (Residential)
• Financial info: No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (no covered or carport spaces listed)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1982; Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Driveway; Lot in Mockingbird Meadows subdivision; Lot approximately 0.73 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approx. 12 x 11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard Bransom El (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C-, #818 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 580 students, 35% FRL); Nick Kerr Middle (math 40% / reading 44%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,248 students, 43% FRL); Burleson Centennial H S (math 27% / reading 50%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,104 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 684 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,536
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Mockingbird Mdws	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,271 (0%)	16mo	$274,000	$216	86
405 Valentine Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-11%)	22mo	$477,250	$422	49
1109 Blackbird Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+15%)	8mo	$300,000	$205	42
8740 Brooks Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+14%)	20mo	$274,900	$190	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-17,651
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,946
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 684
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,181/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $297	+0% $243	+5% $190	+10% $136
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $164	+0% $243	+5% $323	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $292	base $243	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
913 Springhill Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,795	$1.70	14d	1	0.83mi
836 Hollow Creek Rd Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,895	$1.41	22d	1	1.00mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Burleson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,852	$2.05	22d	11	1.44mi
200 Village Creek Pkwy Unit 223 Burleson, TX	2.0	2.0	1051	$1,637	$1.56	0d	1	1.47mi
450 E Renfro St Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,135	$1.51	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $189,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $200,000 Active
17. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus Closed 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

18. 2024-12-03
    status Pending 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

19. 2024-11-29
    historical Active Option Contract 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

20. 2024-10-02
    price $274,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

21. 2024-08-20
    listed $287,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful .73 acres with mature trees, home features a covered front porch with railing, large fenced backyard. Recently replaced heat and ac unit with heat pump. Bring your big ideas. This home has solid bones. This home is located on a quiet cul de sac with easy access to schools. Nicely sized home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Large kitchen is open to the eating area. Plenty of room to build a shop, add a garage or even make the home larger. New price!

22. 2000-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,181
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$87
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-12-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-11-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $274,000 NTREIS
• 2024-08-20 Listed $287,000 NTREIS
• 2000-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,181 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.