Whitetail Plan · Sonterra, TX 76537

$256,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $256,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $340,683.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,757 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,683
• List price: $256,999
• Delta: -24.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Mclintock Rd	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,033 (+3%)	4mo	$309,900	$152	89
345 Brannigan Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	3mo	$249,990	$126	80
133 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,925 (-3%)	2mo	$255,990	$133	79
145 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,945 (-2%)	1mo	$307,990	$158	77
352 Brannigan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,925 (-3%)	3mo	$260,990	$136	76
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+11%)	3mo	$318,000	$145	74
208 Night Riders Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+7%)	2mo	$270,000	$127	73
137 Hatari Trl	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,047 (+3%)	4mo	$315,998	$154	72
313 Blue Steel Rd	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+11%)	4mo	$295,000	$134	65
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-5%)	2mo	$279,276	$148	62
105 Green Berets Bnd	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,837 (-7%)	4mo	$299,990	$163	62
401 The Duke Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+12%)	2mo	$317,680	$143	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-104,311
• Equity at exit: $50,797

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-170,041
• Equity at exit: $29,456

Cash invested: $95,391 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$426 /mo · $5,110/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,980

Max offer price $243,212

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-438	-5% $-556	+0% $-674	+5% $-791	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-758	+0% $-674	+5% $-590	+10% $-506
Rate	-1.0pp $-502	-0.5pp $-587	base $-674	+0.5pp $-762	+1.0pp $-852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,171
• Closing costs: $10,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	0d	1	0.07mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	45d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.12mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.16mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.17mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	0d	1	0.19mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.26mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,200	$0.84	0d	1	0.30mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.33mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.65mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	0d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	6d	1	0.66mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	4d	1	0.76mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	0.78mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	0.81mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.84mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	0d	1	0.88mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	0.89mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.07mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.12mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	25d	1	1.22mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.22mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.23mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.24mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.24mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.25mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.27mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	6d	1	1.30mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	12d	1	1.31mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	21d	1	1.36mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.41mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	4d	1	1.44mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	6d	1	1.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	25d	1	1.45mi
112 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,745	$0.89	45d	1	1.47mi
120 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$1,875	$0.98	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $256,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $256,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $256,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $256,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $256,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $256,499 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $256,499 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,999 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,999 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $255,999 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,499 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $252,499 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $251,999 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $251,999 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $251,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

17. 2026-05-10
    price $254,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $257,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $262,999 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

20. 2026-02-16
    listed $262,990 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,084
• − Property taxes: −$5,110
• − Insurance: −$1,703
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − Depreciation: −$9,911
• Taxable loss: −$14,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home features a spacious open layout and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value.
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value.
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the interior and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $251,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $254,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $262,990 Zillow