Whitetail Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$260,499

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $260,499 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,939.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 4.9% in Jarrell — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,601 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,939
• List price: $260,499
• Delta: -22.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Night Riders Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,983 (+0%)	0mo	$265,000	$134	87
133 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,925 (-3%)	5mo	$255,990	$133	77
145 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,945 (-2%)	4mo	$307,990	$158	74
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,198 (+11%)	6mo	$318,000	$145	71
208 Night Riders Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+7%)	6mo	$270,000	$127	70
520 Old Western Pass	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-8%)	1mo	$224,816	$123	64
910 Yellow Ribbon Cv	0.57mi	4/3.0	1,888 (-5%)	5mo	$279,276	$148	60
401 The Duke Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,218 (+12%)	6mo	$317,680	$143	59
416 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-15%)	3mo	$279,990	$166	50
408 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-15%)	3mo	$271,719	$161	50
104 Hatari Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-15%)	3mo	$274,500	$163	50
161 Lucky Texan Rd	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,245 (+13%)	2mo	$276,035	$123	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-103,897
• Equity at exit: $50,090

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-169,752
• Equity at exit: $29,046

Cash invested: $94,063 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 130 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,000 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,762
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,039/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $237,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-449	-5% $-565	+0% $-682	+5% $-798	+10% $-914
Rent	-10% $-846	-5% $-764	+0% $-682	+5% $-600	+10% $-518
Rate	-1.0pp $-512	-0.5pp $-596	base $-682	+0.5pp $-769	+1.0pp $-857

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,985
• Closing costs: $10,078
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	0d	1	0.02mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.03mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$1,900	$0.84	24d	1	0.04mi
128 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$1,875	$0.80	0d	1	0.04mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	0d	1	0.07mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	139d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	98d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	60d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	103d	1	0.12mi
332 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1877	$1,875	$1.00	0d	1	0.14mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	83d	1	0.16mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	56d	1	0.17mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	28d	1	0.19mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	78d	1	0.20mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	77d	1	0.23mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	112d	1	0.26mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	24d	1	0.28mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	78d	1	0.28mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	43d	1	0.30mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,100	$0.80	58d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.31mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	63d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	92d	1	0.33mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.38mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.54mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	43d	1	0.62mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	113d	1	0.65mi
521 Colonel McNally Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.5	2579	$1,995	$0.77	40d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	99d	1	0.66mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	93d	1	0.66mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,975	$1.07	0d	1	0.68mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	88d	1	0.76mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	24d	1	0.78mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	42d	1	0.78mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.80mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	112d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	115d	1	0.81mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	24d	1	0.82mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	139d	1	0.84mi
712 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-13
   days on market $260,499 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-08-11
   days on market $260,499 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-08-10
   days on market $260,499 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-08-09
   days on market $260,499 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-08-08
   days on market $260,499 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-08-06
   days on market $260,499 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-08-05
   days on market $260,499 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-08-04
   days on market $260,499 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-08-03
   days on market $260,499 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-07-31
    days on market $260,499 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-07-30
    days on market $260,499 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-07-30
    days on market $260,499 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $260,499 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $259,999 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-07-24
    days on market $258,999 Active 158 DOM
16. 2026-07-23
    price $258,999 Active 157 DOM
17. 2026-07-23
    days on market $258,499 Active 157 DOM
18. 2026-07-22
    days on market $258,499 Active 156 DOM
19. 2026-07-21
    days on market $258,499 Active 155 DOM
20. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $258,499 Active 154 DOM
21. 2026-07-18
    days on market $257,999 Active 152 DOM
22. 2026-07-18
    days on market $257,999 Active 151 DOM
23. 2026-07-16
    days on market $257,999 Active 150 DOM
24. 2026-07-15
    days on market $257,999 Active 149 DOM
25. 2026-07-14
    days on market $257,999 Active 148 DOM
26. 2026-07-13
    days on market $257,999 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-07-13
    days on market $257,999 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-07-11
    days on market $257,999 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-07-10
    days on market $257,999 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-07-09
    days on market $257,999 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-07-07
    days on market $257,999 Active 141 DOM
32. 2026-07-06
    days on market $257,999 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-07-05
    days on market $257,999 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-07-03
    days on market $257,999 Active 137 DOM
35. 2026-07-02
    days on market $257,999 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-07-01
    days on market $257,999 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-06-30
    days on market $257,999 Active 134 DOM
38. 2026-06-29
    price $257,999 Active 133 DOM
39. 2026-06-29
    days on market $257,499 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-06-28
    days on market $257,499 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $257,499 Active 131 DOM
42. 2026-06-26
    days on market $256,999 Active 130 DOM
43. 2026-06-24
    days on market $256,999 Active 128 DOM
44. 2026-06-22
    days on market $256,999 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-06-21
    days on market $256,999 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-06-18
    days on market $256,999 Active 122 DOM
47. 2026-06-17
    days on market $256,999 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-06-16
    days on market $256,999 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-06-16
    price $256,999 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-06-15
    days on market $256,499 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,818
• − Property taxes: −$5,039
• − Insurance: −$1,680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$9,773
• Taxable loss: −$14,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,895–$29,685 screening

This two-story home features a spacious open layout and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $251,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $254,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $262,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $262,990 Zillow