1604 Alton Rd · Lawrenceburg, KY 40342

$112,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

0.29 ac lot Est $216k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market after new flooring and all new interior paint. This property is now move in ready! Great opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This 2 bedroom home is situated in a semi-rural location on a quarter acre lot. At 1200 sf you get a lot of space for the money! New roof in 2023. New water heater in 2024. Sold as-is. Buyer or buyer's agent to confirm square footage and lot size.

Key facts

• Quarter acre lot
• New water heater
• Semi-rural location

Tags

• SEMI-RURAL LOCATION
• QUARTER ACRE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.29 acre (public records); Parcel number 42A-40

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: One-level home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Built area approximately 1,200
• Exterior features: Rural view; Public water

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; No fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.9% in Lawrenceburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#288 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Anderson County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #46 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson County Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #90 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 818 students, 46% FRL); Anderson County High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 1,189 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $112k implies a 582% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $99,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.56%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1016 Mccormick Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (+7%)	2mo	$227,000	$176	72
1043 Gregory Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,269 (+6%)	2mo	$213,300	$168	66
1008 Bradley Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+0%)	12mo	$245,000	$203	63
1127 Gregory Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,182 (-2%)	11mo	$220,000	$186	58
1119 Gregory Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,158 (-4%)	8mo	$210,000	$181	57
1047 Gregory Lane Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	20mo	$235,000	$196	56
1025 Bradley Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (+6%)	20mo	$225,000	$176	44
1024 Bradley Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+8%)	22mo	$234,000	$180	41
1032 Bradley Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,076 (-10%)	21mo	$199,000	$185	38
1431 Alton Rd	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,364 (+14%)	20mo	$225,000	$165	32
1034 Alton Station Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+14%)	14mo	$227,000	$166	28
1118 Alton Station Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,337 (+11%)	23mo	$225,000	$168	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,750
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $29,343
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40342

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,500 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,500 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,500 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,500 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,500 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $112,500 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $112,500 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,500 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,500 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $112,500 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $112,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,500 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,500 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,500 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,500 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $112,500 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active
18. 2026-02-08
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-17
    status Active
20. 2025-05-02
    status Active
21. 2025-04-09
    historical Contingent
22. 2025-04-09
    price $112,500
23. 2025-04-09
    historical
24. 2025-02-28
    price $104,500
25. 2025-01-17
    listed $109,500 Active
26. 2015-09-03
    soldstatus $16,500
27. 2008-10-30
    historical
28. 2008-04-30
    listed $35,200
29. 2007-01-07
    historical
30. 2006-07-07
    listed $65,000
31. 2002-12-18
    historical
32. 2002-06-18
    listed $59,900
33. 1996-10-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $968 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable income: $2,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anderson County
• NCES district ID: 2100120
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,090
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5898
• State rank: #46 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lawrenceburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #13866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,739

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,016 people
• By 2030: 23,318 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 23,533 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 23,119 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 21,631 · -6.0%
• By 2100: 19,180 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.6% · R 73.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.14%
• Current HPI: 265.9883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-17 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-02 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-04-09 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $112,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $104,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed $109,500 ImagineMLS
• 2015-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2008-10-30 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2008-04-30 Listed $35,200 ImagineMLS
• 2007-01-07 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2006-07-07 Listed $65,000 ImagineMLS
• 2002-12-18 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2002-06-18 Listed $59,900 ImagineMLS
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $826 · +60.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.