2109 Osprey Isle Ln SW · Ocean Isl Bch, NC 28469

$219,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $153/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home provides low-maintenance living with everything you need on the first floor. Past the foyer is a fully equipped kitchen which connects to the dining and living spaces, along with an attached patio for indoor-outdoor activities. The owner's suite with a private bathroom and walk-in closet is located at opposite ends of the home from the secondary bedroom. Upstairs, a versatile bedroom suite provides additional space for homeowners to customize as they please.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bathroom
• Attached patio

Tags

• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE BEDROOM SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.2% in Ocean Isl Bch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Elementary (math 83% / reading 76%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 571 students, 100% FRL); Shallotte Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 674 students, 100% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brunswick County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 771 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,601 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.74%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,516
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -2.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2121 Osprey Isle Ln SW #89	0.02mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	1mo	$219,900	$153	98
2128 Osprey Isle Ln SW #63	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	1mo	$209,900	$146	97
2089 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 81 Blakely	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	2mo	$210,000	$146	96
2086 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 54 Blakely	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$167	95
2082 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 53 Blakely	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$232,000	$161	94
2077 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 78 Blakely	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$220,000	$153	94
2066 Osprey Isle Ln SW Unit 49 Blakely	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$225,900	$157	93
2054 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 46 Blakely	0.09mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$235,900	$164	92
2041 Osprey Isle Ln SW Unit 69 Blakely	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	4mo	$225,000	$157	91
2050 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 45 Blakely	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	5mo	$249,000	$173	91
2045 Osprey Isle Ln SW Unit 70 Blakely	0.12mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	6mo	$239,900	$167	89
2025 Osprey Isle Ln SW Lot 65 Blakeley	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,437 (0%)	6mo	$247,500	$172	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-23,374
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,476
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,700 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28469

• Active inventory: 771
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $268	+0% $192	+5% $116	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $106	+0% $192	+5% $278	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $248	base $192	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6393 Swainson St SW Ocean Isle Beach, NC	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.06mi
6401 Swainson St SW Shallotte, NC	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,995	$1.35	4d	1	0.06mi
1206 Black Kite Ct Sw Ocean Isle Beach, NC	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,100	$1.26	6d	1	0.21mi
1218 Black Kite Ct Sw Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,200	$1.49	4d	1	0.21mi
1225 Black Kite Ct SW Shallotte, NC	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,300	$1.38	6d	1	0.21mi
247 Glendale Arbor DR SW #41 Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	0.31mi
855 Bertwood Rd SW Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,175	$1.24	119d	1	0.39mi
1205 Black Kite CT SW Ocean Isle Beach, NC	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,150	$1.46	6d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   price $219,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-07-12
   days on market $226,450 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-07-11
   days on market $226,450 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-07-10
   days on market $226,450 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-07-09
   days on market $226,450 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-07-08
   days on market $226,450 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-07-07
   price $226,450 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $229,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-07-04
    days on market $234,150 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $234,150 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-07-02
    days on market $234,150 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-07-01
    days on market $234,150 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-06-30
    days on market $234,150 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-06-29
    days on market $234,150 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $234,150 Active 13 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    pricedays on market $234,150 Active 12 DOM
20. 2026-06-25
    pricedays on market $237,150 Active 9 DOM
21. 2026-06-23
    days on market $257,150 Active 7 DOM
22. 2026-06-22
    days on market $257,150 Active 6 DOM
23. 2026-06-18
    days on market $257,150 Active 3 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    price $257,150 Active 2 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $297,700 Active 2 DOM
26. 2026-06-15
    remarks 486-char remark
27. 2026-06-15
    listed $297,700 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$1,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$306
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready two-story townhouse offers a modern and well-maintained living space with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, and exterior, with minimal maintenance required. The property has a good resale and rental value potential with some updates that can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Union Elementary A NC #24/1,410 Nat'l #1,230/41,679 Middle Shallotte Middle D NC #160/475 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ocean Isl Bch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick · 152,111 people
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,364
• Household income: $87,285
• Rent vs Own: 13.5% rent · 86.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.51%
• Current HPI: 143.229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B