19500 E Gregory St #16 · Black Canyon City, AZ 85324

$165,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,000 sqft lot Est $269k · 39% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy living away from the bustle of Phoenix with unbeatable mountain views! New build in a gated 55+ community with clubhouse featuring fitness center, full kitchen, large dining area, billiards, and outdoor community pool and spa. Lot rent includes water, sewer, and trash. With accepted offer, seller may either partially assist with closing costs, or construct a small carport awning. Prospective new residents must submit an application for park approval.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• OUTDOOR COMMUNITY POOL
• OUTDOOR COMMUNITY SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Exit the freeway, go left, then right onto Black Canyon Hwy. Turn right at Mud Springs Rd, veering left at Gregory St to entrance to park. Once through the gate, take an immediate left, then the first right. Property will be second on the left.
• Financial info: Current financing: Conventional
• HOA & community: Land lease: $515 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Common parking; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Complete spec home
• Construction: Wood frame and slump block construction; Composition roof; Building area per builder
• Exterior features: Block and partial fencing; Dirt in front and back yard; Private maintained road access; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($637/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.9% in Black Canyon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#213 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Canon Elementary District (4484) (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #294 of 501 in AZ (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,576
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34580 S Albins St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-4%)	9mo	$260,000	$219	66
19275 E Saguaro Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (-8%)	6mo	$263,000	$232	57
34775 S Cholla Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-1%)	18mo	$325,000	$266	57
19741 E Indian Hills Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+9%)	2mo	$256,000	$190	56
34930 S Cholla Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,114 (-10%)	5mo	$179,000	$161	55
19381 E Spencer St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-6%)	24mo	$150,000	$130	52
34965 S School Loop Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+9%)	19mo	$241,000	$179	37
34450 S K Field Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-11%)	21mo	$238,500	$218	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $93,536
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $273,374
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85324

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $165,000 Active
18. 2026-04-01
    historical
19. 2026-04-01
    historical
20. 2025-11-03
    listed $170,000 Active
21. 2025-09-29
    price $170,000
22. 2025-09-24
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $1,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new build mobile home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great value with its new construction and potential for further updates to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canon Elementary District (4484)
• NCES district ID: 0401650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,755
• Composite: 27.85/100
• National rank: #12286
• State rank: #294 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Black Canyon City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #21226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Canyon City, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,297

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.16%
• Current HPI: 417.6032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $170,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $170,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $180,000 ARMLS