18961 Santa Barbara Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$170,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,887 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1927 4,356 sqft lot Est $189k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This generously sized colonial is located in the beautiful, tree-lined, Bagley Neighborhood and is priced to sale!! 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors and a cute little den/office off of the dining room. Kitchen has a breakfast nook perfect for family meals together. Nice size master bedroom with walk in closet. There is an attic on the 3rd level that can be finished and used as a 5th bedroom or rec room. Plenty of storage space in the basement with a half lav. Property is move in ready. Sold As-Is. Sale is subject to probate court approval. Buyers agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1927

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $170k implies a 423% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.65%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18661 San Juan Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,882 (-0%)	4mo	$236,000	$125	84
18655 Monica St	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,933 (+2%)	0mo	$120,000	$62	78
18468 Santa Barbara Dr	0.24mi	4/1.5	1,738 (-8%)	5mo	$150,000	$86	72
19498 Santa Rosa Dr	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,852 (-2%)	2mo	$185,580	$100	59
17585 Wisconsin St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,944 (+3%)	3mo	$290,000	$149	57
18037 Pennington Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,672 (-11%)	0mo	$91,000	$54	52
19980 Stoepel St	0.75mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (+2%)	2mo	$156,900	$82	51
17584 Cherrylawn St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,021 (+7%)	4mo	$281,000	$139	50
18445 Roselawn St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,609 (-15%)	5mo	$91,000	$57	50
18287 Santa Rosa Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (+14%)	1mo	$200,000	$93	48
17524 Woodingham Dr	0.65mi	4/1.5	2,120 (+12%)	5mo	$255,000	$120	45
17528 Ohio St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,673 (-11%)	5mo	$219,900	$131	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,030
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $15,902
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	5d	1	0.46mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	0.69mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.92mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	20d	1	1.18mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	17d	1	1.21mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	17d	1	1.26mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	1.29mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	17d	1	1.31mi
631 Shasta Pl Ferndale, MI	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,100	$1.59	44d	1	1.38mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	1.43mi
16211 Kentucky St Detroit, MI	4.0	2.0	2168	$1,995	$0.92	17d	1	1.44mi
2554 Woodstock Dr Highland Park, MI	3.0	1.5	1929	$2,250	$1.17	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-01-28
   status Pending 641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   Perfect opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This generously sized colonial is located in the beautiful, tree-lined, Bagley Neighborhood and is priced to sale!! 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors and a cute little den/office off of the dining room. Kitchen has a breakfast nook perfect for family meals together. Nice size master bedroom with walk in closet. There is an attic on the 3rd level that can be finished and used as a 5th bedroom or rec room. Plenty of storage space in the basement with a half lav. Property is move in ready. Sold As-Is. Sale is subject to probate court approval. Buyers agent to verify all information.

2. 2025-01-28
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   Perfect opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This generously sized colonial is located in the beautiful, tree-lined, Bagley Neighborhood and is priced to sale!! 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors and a cute little den/office off of the dining room. Kitchen has a breakfast nook perfect for family meals together. Nice size master bedroom with walk in closet. There is an attic on the 3rd level that can be finished and used as a 5th bedroom or rec room. Plenty of storage space in the basement with a half lav. Property is move in ready. Sold As-Is. Sale is subject to probate court approval. Buyers agent to verify all information.

3. 2024-10-18
   listed $170,000 Active 641-char remark

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   Perfect opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This generously sized colonial is located in the beautiful, tree-lined, Bagley Neighborhood and is priced to sale!! 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors and a cute little den/office off of the dining room. Kitchen has a breakfast nook perfect for family meals together. Nice size master bedroom with walk in closet. There is an attic on the 3rd level that can be finished and used as a 5th bedroom or rec room. Plenty of storage space in the basement with a half lav. Property is move in ready. Sold As-Is. Sale is subject to probate court approval. Buyers agent to verify all information.

4. 2024-10-18
   listed $170,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (641 chars)

   Perfect opportunity for a first time home buyer or investor. This generously sized colonial is located in the beautiful, tree-lined, Bagley Neighborhood and is priced to sale!! 4 bedrooms, hardwood floors and a cute little den/office off of the dining room. Kitchen has a breakfast nook perfect for family meals together. Nice size master bedroom with walk in closet. There is an attic on the 3rd level that can be finished and used as a 5th bedroom or rec room. Plenty of storage space in the basement with a half lav. Property is move in ready. Sold As-Is. Sale is subject to probate court approval. Buyers agent to verify all information.

5. 2008-12-11
   soldstatus $32,500 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   MAKE THIS HOUSE YOUR HOME!! AMPLE SPACE!! GREAT AREA, THIS IS A MUST SEE 4B, 1.1 BATH, FIREPLACE. EMD MUST BE SUBMITED WITH OFFER

6. 2008-09-12
   listed $36,000 129-char remark

   Show marketing remark (129 chars)

   MAKE THIS HOUSE YOUR HOME!! AMPLE SPACE!! GREAT AREA, THIS IS A MUST SEE 4B, 1.1 BATH, FIREPLACE. EMD MUST BE SUBMITED WITH OFFER

7. 2007-05-14
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,038 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$580/yr (+$48/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $3,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-28 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-28 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-10-18 Listed $170,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-10-18 Listed $170,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-11 Sold (MLS) $32,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-12 Listed $36,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · -55.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.