17242 Philadelphia Rd · Cedar Ridge, CA 95383

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · SingleFamily · 560 Days on market

Built 1965 1,024 sqft lot ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remote, off grid property, with House, Well, Septic on 4.99 acres. House needs TLC, but lots of potential. Also has a separate Studio apartment, but needs pluming, wood shed, and a storage building. Very peaceful.

Key facts

• Wood shed
• Septic
• Storage building

Tags

• REMOTE OFF GRID PROPERTY
• WELL
• SEPTIC
• SEPARATE STUDIO APARTMENT
• WOOD SHED
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RE5

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Has heating
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1965; About 1,024 living area
• Construction: Metal construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: No steps to entry; Wood burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $727 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.1% in Cedar Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#922 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Summerville Union High (rural): math 30% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #505 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 560 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 560 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.78%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $30,907
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $86,607
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95383

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 560 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 559 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 558 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 557 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 556 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 554 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 553 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 550 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 549 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 548 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 547 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 544 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 543 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 542 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 541 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 540 DOM
17. 2025-06-28
    price $95,000
18. 2025-06-27
    price $85,000
19. 2024-12-26
    price $140,000
20. 2024-08-30
    listed $190,000 Active
21. 2023-11-11
    historical
22. 2020-10-28
    soldstatus $145,000 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Remote, off grid property, with House, Well, Septic on 4.99 acres. House needs TLC, but lots of potential. Also has a separate Studio apartment, but needs pluming, wood shed, and a storage building. Very peaceful.

23. 2020-07-09
    listed $148,000 213-char remark

    Show marketing remark (213 chars)

    Remote, off grid property, with House, Well, Septic on 4.99 acres. House needs TLC, but lots of potential. Also has a separate Studio apartment, but needs pluming, wood shed, and a storage building. Very peaceful.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,662
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,839
• After-tax cash flow: $6,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Summerville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638280
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,350
• Composite: 42.89/100
• National rank: #6713
• State rank: #505 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Cedar Ridge

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #24213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,663

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.75%
• Current HPI: 137.2564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-35.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $85,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-12-26 Price Changed $140,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-30 Listed $190,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-11-11 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-10-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-07-09 Listed $148,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR