3768 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 · Stockton, CA 95219

$244,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 978 sqft · Condo public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1979 $250/sqft · 10% below area Est $274k · 10% under $565/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rental Income for Investors or buy to make it your home! Welcome to this Beautiful downstairs 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo located in The Desirable Lincoln Village West, North Shore Condominiums with pool and partial lake view from your private patio area giving you the Beautiful lake view but also giving you privacy on your patio. Enjoy 4 Beautiful pools, lake access to kayak or paddle boat, use of the clubhouse and areas to sit and enjoy the serene grounds as well as the Beautiful lake. Condo features tile floors throughout, master bedroom with private bathroom and walk in closet, and a fireplace for cozy nights by the fire. The private patio area has access from your living room and access

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Lake views
• 4 pools

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• POOL VIEW
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA
• 4 POOLS
• LAKE ACCESS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (48.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (48.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,972 (48.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.78%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,588
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -10.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $93,179
• Equity at exit: $220,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $313,765
• Equity at exit: $475,787

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,297/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$565
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,818

Max offer price $125,972

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-535	-5% $-604	+0% $-673	+5% $-743	+10% $-812
Rent	-10% $-829	-5% $-751	+0% $-673	+5% $-596	+10% $-518
Rate	-1.0pp $-550	-0.5pp $-611	base $-673	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.00mi
3790 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$1,850	$1.89	24d	1	0.11mi
3525 W Benjamin Holt Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$2,015	$2.84	3d	11	0.38mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	20d	1	0.61mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	24d	1	0.61mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,495	$2.06	4d	1	0.61mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,950	$2.29	11d	2	0.61mi
6353 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,975	$2.26	45d	1	0.71mi
6408 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,960	$3.19	3d	4	0.74mi
3038 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	4d	1	0.74mi
2973 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,925	$2.81	4d	6	0.78mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	0.79mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 1 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	680	$1,450	$2.13	45d	1	0.79mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,750	$2.03	45d	1	0.79mi
6724 Plymouth Rd #37 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,850	$2.43	24d	1	0.83mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$1,850	$2.80	4d	2	0.85mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,400	$2.50	45d	1	0.85mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	0.85mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	4d	7	0.88mi
7355 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,800	$2.02	4d	1	1.00mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	24d	1	1.03mi
7565 Shoreline Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,255	$2.66	3d	4	1.04mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	1.10mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	1.32mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	4d	1	1.37mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	4d	1	1.37mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	1.39mi
8035 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,179	$2.31	3d	20	1.39mi
7912 Richland Way Stockton, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,079	$2.08	0d	7	1.45mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $565 · $6,780/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2024-06-25
    soldstatus $265,000
17. 2003-08-21
    soldstatus $110,000
18. 2002-05-14
    soldstatus $111,000
19. 1987-11-03
    soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,297 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,297
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − HOA: −$6,780
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$12,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+440.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 1987-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,297 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.