19122 W Susan Ave · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$161,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2004 7,965 sqft lot Est $190k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity! Affordable home on a spacious corner lot with a fully gated yard and large storage/workshop. .. offering privacy and room to spread out. Relax on the covered front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening shade. Interior features newer stove, carpet, and countertops, plus professional cleaning for true move-in ready appeal. The kitchen offers espresso-tone cabinetry, electric range, refrigerator, and cozy eat-in space. Split-bedroom layout with a generous primary suite, walk-in closet, and added storage. Expansive lot with room for parking, outdoor living, or future plans. No HOA. .. bring your ideas!

Key facts

• 7,965 sq ft lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 104 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Septic tank
• Home design: Modular/Pre-fab property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Painted exterior; Other construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Dirt front and back yard; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate countertops; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in master bedroom; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $162k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $497 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $162k implies a 820% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,329 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.15%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $189,728
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18140 W Carol Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	1mo	$100,000	$80	68
18592 W Jacqueline Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-1%)	13mo	$55,000	$45	67
5741 N Thornton Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-9%)	17mo	$180,000	$161	65
18540 W Camino Grande --	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (-6%)	9mo	$179,000	$154	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,328
• Equity at exit: $24,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $60,371
• Equity at exit: $13,998

Cash invested: $45,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$849
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $376/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $161,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,475
• Closing costs: $4,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2356 N Sand Hills Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,995	$1.65	15d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $161,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $161,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $161,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $161,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $161,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $161,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $161,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $161,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $161,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $161,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $161,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $161,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $161,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    status Active
17. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
18. 2026-01-29
    listed $169,000 Active
19. 2025-09-19
    historical
20. 2025-07-18
    status Active
21. 2025-07-18
    historical
22. 2025-05-03
    price $168,000
23. 2025-04-25
    price $169,000
24. 2025-02-22
    price $175,000
25. 2025-02-12
    listed $180,000 Active
26. 2024-07-12
    historical
27. 2024-06-08
    listed $212,000 Active
28. 2012-04-03
    soldstatus $17,600 Closed
29. 2012-02-24
    status Pending
30. 2012-02-15
    listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $376 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 184.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,069
• − Property taxes: −$376
• − Insurance: −$810
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$4,710
• Taxable income: $3,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$833
• After-tax cash flow: $5,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1026.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $168,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Listed $180,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed $212,000 ARMLS
• 2012-04-03 Sold (MLS) $17,600 ARMLS
• 2012-02-24 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-02-15 Listed $15,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $376 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.