2509 E Ridgecrest · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$155,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1975 0.28 ac lot $136/sqft · 21% below area Est $195k · 21% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment property in downtown Caddo Mills. Garage has plumbing available to add on master suite with additional bathroom and closet.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,270
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -20.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2504 Johnson Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-2%)	6mo	$165,000	$147	82
2305 Greenville St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+1%)	6mo	$145,000	$126	76
2417 State Highway 66	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,094 (-4%)	0mo	$199,900	$183	70
2704 Caddo St	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,096 (-4%)	14mo	$195,000	$178	68
2217 Greenville St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,082 (-5%)	10mo	$199,500	$184	58
2205 Foster Cir	0.41mi	2/1.0	990 (-13%)	4mo	$223,000	$225	52
2413 Mcfarland	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	9mo	$163,500	$162	46
2109 Chisom	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	9mo	$229,000	$191	44
2022 Laura St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	13mo	$229,000	$191	42
2210 Kaitlyn Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (+4%)	18mo	$225,000	$189	38
2423 State Highway 66	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (-15%)	16mo	$189,000	$194	37
2206 Railroad St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,295 (+14%)	19mo	$224,000	$173	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,562
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,063
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,138/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2511 First St Caddo Mills, TX	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,700	$1.43	17d	1	0.21mi
2475 Circle Dr Unit 2477 Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	13d	1	0.49mi
2312 Gilmer St Caddo Mills, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	44d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $155,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $165,000 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Excellent investment property in downtown Caddo Mills. Garage has plumbing available to add on master suite with additional bathroom and closet.

17. 2026-04-21
    listed $175,000 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Excellent investment property in downtown Caddo Mills. Garage has plumbing available to add on master suite with additional bathroom and closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,138 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,138 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,138
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $1,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caddo Mills, TX
• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $175,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,138 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.