2525 Panfish Dr · Dundee, FL 33898

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1987 7,026 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED! PLUS SELLER IS OFFERING $5,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS!!!! Discover affordable Florida living with this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double wide mobile home with NO HOA and NO lot rent — you own the land! This home features a desirable split-bedroom floor plan and numerous updates throughout. The spacious primary suite offers an ensuite bathroom with convenient in-bath laundry space, and the washer and dryer are included. Recent improvements include upgraded interior walls, luxury vinyl plank flooring, updated bathrooms, a metal roof installed in 2023, new well pump and tank within the past six months, new tie-downs and skirting within the last 1.5 years, H

Key facts

• No hoa
• You own the land
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• NO HOA
• YOU OWN THE LAND
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• IN-BATH LAUNDRY SPACE
• UPGRADED INTERIOR WALLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Zoned R-3; Lot is level and paved with 70 x 100 dimensions (approximately 0.16 acres); No waterfront or water access; One well and one septic on the property
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Built on a crawlspace
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom floor plan; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $160k implies a 416% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,957
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $39,594
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $499	+0% $454	+5% $409	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $383	+0% $454	+5% $525	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $535	-0.5pp $495	base $454	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2694 Chuck Wagon Way Lake Wales, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	15d	1	1.16mi
5954 Skokie Rd Lake Wales, FL	2.0	1.5	925	$1,400	$1.51	20d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $159,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $164,900 Active
16. 2007-05-04
    historical
17. 2006-11-16
    listed $62,000
18. 2005-02-16
    historical
19. 2005-01-20
    listed $43,000
20. 2003-04-04
    soldstatus $31,000
21. 1989-05-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$537/yr (+$45/mo · 67.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$717
• After-tax cash flow: $4,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+724.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-16 Listed $62,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-20 Listed $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.