2410 Ronita Ln #21 · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$33,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1985 $580/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* Easy, Affordable 55+ Living in a Welcoming Community * Pride of ownership shines in this beautifully cared-for 1985 double-wide manufactured home located in the desirable Paradise Mobile Home Estates, a friendly 55+ community. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home feels open and inviting with large windows that bring in plenty of natural light throughout the living spaces. The functional kitchen provides ample workspace and comes complete with all appliances, making this home truly move-in ready. Enjoy the convenience of a covered front porch-perfect for relaxing outdoors year-round. Additional features include covered parking and a storage shed for extra storage. Affordable liv

Key facts

• Built 1985
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.30%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,576
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Ronita Ln #21	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$33,000	$25	94
2404 Clark St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	82
2508 Webb Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	21mo	$172,700	$128	72
2617 Crestview Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$67,500	$54	68
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #55	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-1%)	15mo	$78,500	$59	54
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #94	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+6%)	20mo	$72,000	$50	43
2418 Mason Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	17mo	$95,000	$76	40
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #90	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	40
2401 Commercial Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	22mo	$62,000	$52	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $46,443
• Equity at exit: $19,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 12.72×
• Total profit: $108,297
• Equity at exit: $35,155

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $222/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$580
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $597	+0% $588	+5% $578	+10% $569
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $519	+0% $588	+5% $656	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $596	base $588	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $580 · $6,960/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $33,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $222 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $251 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥91°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$222
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − HOA: −$6,960
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $7,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $5,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $33,000 SSMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $222 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.