9204 206th Street Ct E #15 · Graham, WA 98338

$133,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large lot in all ages park. Huge yard with plenty of parking. Primary bedroom with en suite at one end of home, 2 beds with full bath at the other end. Two living areas, and dining room off kitchen great for entertaining. Plenty of storage and cabinets. Newer carpet and paint 2 years old. Space rent includes septic and garbage. Park approval required. Call today!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 2001
• Listed 47 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $37k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $134k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $129,883 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.08%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,784
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9316 206th Street Ct E #12	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	9mo	$133,000	$95	81
20505 93rd Avenue Ct E #6	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	4mo	$395,000	$261	70
20115 92nd Ave E	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$485,000	$389	60
9327 218th Street Ct E #9	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$147,000	$97	37
8316 198th St E	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	23mo	$505,000	$438	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $56,941
• Equity at exit: $19,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $153,309
• Equity at exit: $11,577

Cash invested: $37,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,419/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $1,221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $133,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,297	-5% $1,259	+0% $1,221	+5% $1,183	+10% $1,145
Rent	-10% $1,011	-5% $1,116	+0% $1,221	+5% $1,326	+10% $1,431
Rate	-1.0pp $1,289	-0.5pp $1,255	base $1,221	+0.5pp $1,186	+1.0pp $1,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,475
• Closing costs: $4,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19906 100th Avenue Ct E Graham, WA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,749	$2.08	17d	1	0.65mi
10234 194th St E Graham, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1231	$2,252	$1.83	2d	17	0.98mi
10007 186th St E #234 Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1019	$2,300	$2.26	2d	1	1.35mi
18527 101st Ave Ct E Puyallup, WA	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,600	$1.56	44d	1	1.41mi
10110 184th St E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1582	$2,595	$1.64	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $133,900 Pending 47 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
3. 2026-05-09
   price $133,900
4. 2026-04-02
   listed $139,900 Active
5. 2018-09-14
   soldstatus $80,000 Sold
6. 2018-08-29
   status Pending Inspection
7. 2018-07-25
   listed $80,000 Active
8. 2016-11-21
   soldstatus $59,760 Sold
9. 2016-10-22
   status Pending
10. 2016-10-18
    listed $59,750 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,500
• − Property taxes: −$1,419
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,549
• − Management: −$2,549
• − Depreciation: −$3,895
• Taxable income: $13,276
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,186
• After-tax cash flow: $11,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+124.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $133,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $139,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-25 Listed $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $59,760 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-18 Listed $59,750 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,419 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.