313 County Road 468 · Castroville, TX 78009

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1997 1.49 ac lot $90/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.49 Acres just outside of Castroville, TX. This home is ready for your creativity and imagination for your personal finish out. Needs your expertise remodeling ideas to make it a great Bed & Breakfast in the Texas Hill Country. Minutes from Alsatian Golf Course. Visit the Winery, historic landmarks and walk the Medina River. Minutes from San Antonio, TX. A must see.

Key facts

• 49 acres
• Castroville
• Texas hill country

Tags

• 49 ACRES
• CASTROVILLE
• TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
• ALSATIAN GOLF COURSE
• MEDINA RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Castroville El (math 59% / reading 62%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 55% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,429 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.49%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,614
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -53.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 County Road 4613	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-3%)	20mo	$339,900	$160	55
688 Double Gate Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,270 (+3%)	4mo	$625,000	$275	55
635 Double Gate	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,102 (-4%)	1mo	$639,900	$304	54
1143 County Road 4516	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,304 (+5%)	14mo	$515,000	$224	53
1020 County Road 4516	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,521 (+14%)	4mo	$409,000	$162	46
1181 County Road 4516	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,934 (-12%)	10mo	$419,000	$217	42
105 Pr 4662	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,896 (-14%)	13mo	$625,000	$330	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,507
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-43,491
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,309/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $178,601

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-59	+0% $-115	+5% $-172	+10% $-228
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-184	+0% $-115	+5% $-47	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-65	base $-115	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-01-12
    listed $199,000 New 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    1.49 Acres just outside of Castroville, TX. This home is ready for your creativity and imagination for your personal finish out. Needs your expertise remodeling ideas to make it a great Bed & Breakfast in the Texas Hill Country. Minutes from Alsatian Golf Course. Visit the Winery, historic landmarks and walk the Medina River. Minutes from San Antonio, TX. A must see.

16. 2025-01-16
    soldstatus
17. 2025-01-15
    soldstatus Sold 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

18. 2024-12-30
    status Pending 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

19. 2024-11-26
    historical Active Option 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

20. 2024-11-20
    price $199,000 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

21. 2024-11-11
    price $240,000 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

22. 2024-10-29
    listed $250,000 New 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Uniquely charming home in Castroville! No city taxes and no HOA! The 1.49 acre property includes a 2202sf house with 2 living areas & 2 dining areas, large covered patio, carport, and numerous outbuildings. Located in Medina Valley ISD and situated just south of the Alsatian Golf Club, the property has the semblance of country living with quick access to Highway 90 and the amenities and conveniences of Castroville, Hondo and San Antonio. The commercial and residential development in the area provides for attractive appreciation potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,309 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,309 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,309
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $-244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,494

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Albanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $199,000 LERA
• 2025-01-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-15 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2024-12-30 Pending — LERA
• 2024-11-26 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $199,000 LERA
• 2024-11-11 Price Changed $240,000 LERA
• 2024-10-29 Listed $250,000 LERA

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,309 · +52.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.