13083 Bayberry Ave · Watson, LA 70706

$265,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $275k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * THIS HOME QUALIFIES FOR NO MONEY DOWN FINANCING AND THE SELLERS ARE WILLING TO OFFER $6,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS * * Welcome to your dream home! This immaculate 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is nestled on a tranquil lake lot, perfect for fishing enthusiasts. Situated in Levi Milton/Walker schools on a peaceful dead-end street, this upgraded luxurious white brick home combines elegance with comfort. Step inside to discover a spacious living room that invites relaxation and gatherings. The large kitchen island is ideal for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops that add a touch of sophistication. The master suite is a true retreat, boasting a huge walk-in closet and a separate shower and soaking tub. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing neighborhood pool and a lovely park. This home does not require flood insurance. Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in a beautiful, well-maintained home in a desirable location. Schedule your viewing today!

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Huge walk-in closet
• Neighborhood pool

Tags

• TRANQUIL LAKE LOT
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• BEAUTIFUL GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.91%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,933
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -3.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35602 Grovemont Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,087 (+0%)	0mo	$268,000	$128	89
13800 Wincrest Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,079 (0%)	3mo	$275,000	$132	74
35453 Forest Manor Ave	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,022 (-3%)	1mo	$290,900	$144	58
35570 Vandora Dr	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	3mo	$265,900	$143	52
35570 Vandora Dr	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	3mo	$266,795	$144	52
35576 Vandora Dr	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	3mo	$270,900	$146	51
12816 Ruby Lake Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,865 (-10%)	2mo	$299,900	$161	51
35456 Forest Manor Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-12%)	1mo	$272,900	$150	51
35441 Forest Manor Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-12%)	2mo	$274,900	$151	50
35432 Forest Manor Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-12%)	2mo	$268,900	$147	50
35414 Forest Manor Ave	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	2mo	$271,900	$146	47
35387 Forest Manor Ave	0.59mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,856 (-11%)	3mo	$270,130	$146	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-31,475
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,599
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,109/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,272

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $255	+0% $180	+5% $105	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $81	+0% $180	+5% $279	+10% $377
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $247	base $180	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	19d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $265,000 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    * * THIS HOME QUALIFIES FOR NO MONEY DOWN FINANCING AND THE SELLERS ARE WILLING TO OFFER $6,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS * * Welcome to your dream home! This immaculate 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is nestled on a tranquil lake lot, perfect for fishing enthusiasts. Situated in Levi Milton/Walker schools on a peaceful dead-end street, this upgraded luxurious white brick home combines elegance with comfort. Step inside to discover a spacious living room that invites relaxation and gatherings. The large kitchen island is ideal for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops that add a touch of sophistication. The master suite is a true retreat, boasting a huge walk-in closet and a separate shower and soaking tub. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing neighborhood pool and a lovely park. This home does not require flood insurance. Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in a beautiful, well-maintained home in a desirable location. Schedule your viewing today!

16. 2026-02-05
    listed $265,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    * * THIS HOME QUALIFIES FOR NO MONEY DOWN FINANCING AND THE SELLERS ARE WILLING TO OFFER $6,000 TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS * * Welcome to your dream home! This immaculate 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence is nestled on a tranquil lake lot, perfect for fishing enthusiasts. Situated in Levi Milton/Walker schools on a peaceful dead-end street, this upgraded luxurious white brick home combines elegance with comfort. Step inside to discover a spacious living room that invites relaxation and gatherings. The large kitchen island is ideal for entertaining, featuring beautiful granite countertops that add a touch of sophistication. The master suite is a true retreat, boasting a huge walk-in closet and a separate shower and soaking tub. Enjoy the community's fantastic amenities, including a refreshing neighborhood pool and a lovely park. This home does not require flood insurance. Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity to live in a beautiful, well-maintained home in a desirable location. Schedule your viewing today!

17. 2026-01-06
    price $265,000
18. 2026-01-06
    price $265,000
19. 2025-10-03
    price $269,500
20. 2025-10-03
    price $269,500
21. 2025-08-04
    price $273,500
22. 2025-08-04
    price $273,500
23. 2025-05-20
    status Active
24. 2025-05-05
    price $275,000
25. 2025-05-05
    price $275,000
26. 2025-02-27
    price $279,900
27. 2025-02-27
    price $279,900
28. 2025-02-07
    listed $285,000 Active
29. 2025-02-07
    listed $285,000 Active
30. 2024-12-11
    listed $285,000 Active
31. 2024-12-11
    historical
32. 2024-12-05
    listed $285,000 Active
33. 2024-12-05
    listed $285,000 Active
34. 2023-12-11
    historical
35. 2023-10-27
    price $279,900
36. 2023-07-17
    historical
37. 2023-07-16
    listed $285,000 Active
38. 2023-07-16
    listed $279,900
39. 2023-04-03
    listed $285,900 Active
40. 2023-04-03
    listed $285,900
41. 2022-10-20
    soldstatus Sold
42. 2022-09-22
    status Pending
43. 2022-09-02
    price $272,255
44. 2022-07-15
    price $292,125
45. 2022-07-11
    listed $307,125 Active
46. 2022-07-11
    listed $272,255

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,109
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$2,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $2,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a spacious living room, updated kitchen, and well-maintained exterior. Consider painting the exterior and replacing the flooring for a slight increase in value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are old and may need replacement

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood floors are old and may need replacement ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $265,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $265,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $265,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $265,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $269,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $269,500 GBRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $273,500 GBRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $273,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $275,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $275,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $279,900 GBRMLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $279,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $285,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $285,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $285,000 GBRMLS
• 2024-12-11 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $285,000 GBRMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed $285,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-12-11 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $279,900 GBRMLS
• 2023-07-17 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2023-07-16 Listed $279,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-07-16 Listed $285,000 GBRMLS
• 2023-04-03 Listed $285,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2023-04-03 Listed $285,900 GBRMLS
• 2022-10-20 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2022-09-22 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $272,255 GBRMLS
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $292,125 GBRMLS
• 2022-07-11 Listed $272,255 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-07-11 Listed $307,125 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+139.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,109 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.