109 Lake St · Liberty, NY 12754

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1950 6,534 sqft lot Est $221k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This Cape Cod–style home in Liberty, Sullivan County offers 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, and 1,158 square feet of straightforward living space at $165,000. If you’re searching for an affordable house in the Catskills with solid bones and room to update over time, this property presents a practical opportunity. The main level features a large tiled living and dining area with an open flow into the kitchen. The kitchen includes wood cabinetry, laminate counters, a double window over the sink, and full-size appliances. Finishes are functional and dated, giving buyers the option to renovate at their own pace. The full bathroom is tiled with a tub/shower combination, and there is a conveni

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($838/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#890 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Central School District (town): math 31% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #569 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 691 students, 64% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #664 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 529 students, 68% FRL); Liberty High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 596 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Liberty Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,178
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Lake St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,158 (0%)	1mo	$182,500	$158	99
9 Hope St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,111 (-4%)	3mo	$217,500	$196	83
241 W Lake St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,173 (+1%)	7mo	$276,000	$235	79
25 Albion St	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (-3%)	2mo	$271,000	$241	77
138 Chestnut	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+8%)	10mo	$200,000	$160	65
10 Upper Ferndale Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+3%)	4mo	$149,000	$125	63
13 Cooper Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-5%)	19mo	$249,000	$226	63
2 Cross St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,268 (+10%)	20mo	$120,000	$95	52
326 West Lake St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,280 (+10%)	4mo	$188,000	$147	51
8 Spur St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+5%)	22mo	$265,000	$218	45
9 Marion Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-10%)	8mo	$199,900	$191	41
31 S Liberty St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-13%)	2mo	$115,000	$114	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $94,404
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $274,688
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12754

• Home prices YoY: 28.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,772/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,580

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Carrier St Unit 2 Liberty, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	19d	1	0.07mi
31 Saint Pauls Pl Unit 3 Liberty, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,375	$1.72	14d	1	0.44mi
7 Law St Unit PH Liberty, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	14d	1	0.46mi
284 S Main St Apt 2 Liberty, NY	3.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	23d	1	0.48mi
221 Chestnut St Unit 3 Liberty, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	23d	1	0.53mi
299 S Main St Unit 2 Liberty, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,575	$1.75	23d	1	0.54mi
90 Champlin Ave Unit 1 Liberty, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.55mi
11 Orange Ln Unit 9 Liberty, NY	2.0	2.0	995	$1,769	$1.78	23d	1	0.58mi
105 Crestview Dr Liberty, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	14d	2	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   soldstatus $182,500 Closed
2. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-19
   listed $165,000 Active
4. 2026-02-13
   historical $165,000
5. 2006-10-27
   soldstatus $52,500
6. 2006-09-11
   historical
7. 2006-08-25
   listed $42,000
8. 1983-05-12
   soldstatus $26,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,772 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,772 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,772
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $1,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617220
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,542
• Composite: 27.65/100
• National rank: #6920
• State rank: #569 of 590 in NY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #890
• US rank: #17254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty, NY
• City population: 8,525
• Population (ZIP): 8,525

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 100.10%
• Current HPI: 457.3342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+593.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Sold (MLS) $182,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Coming Soon $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-27 Sold (MLS) $52,500 HGMLS
• 2006-09-11 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-08-25 Listed $42,000 HGMLS
• 1983-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $26,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,772 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.