8917 Lucerne Ct · Jennings, MO 63136

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1941 5,248 sqft lot $65/sqft · at area comps Est $70k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this charming brick bungalow full of opportunity and comfort! This inviting home features 2 bedrooms and spacious rooms that offer plenty of space to relax, gather, and make your own. Step outside and enjoy a level yard—perfect for outdoor fun, gardening, or simply unwinding. The detached garage adds extra convenience and storage. With so much potential, this home is a great chance to create the space you’ve been dreaming of. Whether you're just starting out, downsizing, or looking for your next investment, this property is full of possibilities. Home sold as-is. Seller to do no inspections or repairs.

Key facts

• Brick bungalow
• Level yard
• Detached garage

Tags

• BRICK BUNGALOW
• LEVEL YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $70k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.80%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,077
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8819 May Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,074 (-0%)	0mo	$100,000	$93	84
8930 Sides Ct	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-6%)	1mo	$65,000	$64	76
2026 Mclaran Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,026 (-5%)	1mo	$89,500	$87	68
9426 Westchester Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	982 (-9%)	1mo	$68,900	$70	64
1719 Veronica Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	984 (-9%)	2mo	$94,500	$96	63
9240 Hathaway Dr	0.52mi	2/1.0	982 (-9%)	2mo	$130,000	$132	60
9456 Bagley Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0	982 (-9%)	2mo	$55,000	$56	59
8926 Hillview Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	920 (-14%)	3mo	$38,700	$42	58
8870 Saint Cyr Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+5%)	2mo	$39,900	$35	56
9468 Halls Ferry Rd	0.45mi	3/0.5 (+1)	975 (-9%)	2mo	$67,500	$69	54
9418 Pattonwood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	982 (-9%)	3mo	$134,450	$137	52
9435 Eastchester Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,195 (+11%)	2mo	$55,500	$46	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $42,733
• Equity at exit: $34,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $111,873
• Equity at exit: $55,976

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	23d	1	0.19mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	23d	1	0.34mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	23d	1	0.50mi
2022 McLaran Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,593	$1.35	14d	1	0.50mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.54mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	17d	1	0.56mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	23d	1	0.59mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	43d	1	0.62mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	16d	1	0.64mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	23d	1	0.68mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	0.68mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	3d	1	0.69mi
8828 Riverview Blvd Apt 2S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	816	$850	$1.04	43d	1	0.72mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	43d	1	0.75mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	2d	1	0.80mi
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	43d	1	0.83mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	20d	1	0.84mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	16d	1	0.84mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	3d	1	0.85mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	43d	1	0.85mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	3d	1	0.92mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	1.03mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	43d	1	1.03mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	1.04mi
5662 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	768	$850	$1.11	23d	1	1.04mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	23d	1	1.06mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	1.06mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	43d	1	1.07mi
5654 Acme Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$325	$0.34	21d	1	1.09mi
5721 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,120	$1.09	23d	1	1.10mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	43d	1	1.11mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
5612 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,150	$0.96	10d	1	1.15mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	43d	1	1.16mi
7120 Greenhaven Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,050	$0.93	23d	1	1.17mi
5574 Era Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	11d	1	1.21mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	1.23mi
5546 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$1,273	$1.50	20d	1	1.23mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.24mi
956 Fontaine Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $70,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming brick bungalow full of opportunity and comfort! This inviting home features 2 bedrooms and spacious rooms that offer plenty of space to relax, gather, and make your own. Step outside and enjoy a level yard—perfect for outdoor fun, gardening, or simply unwinding. The detached garage adds extra convenience and storage. With so much potential, this home is a great chance to create the space you’ve been dreaming of. Whether you're just starting out, downsizing, or looking for your next investment, this property is full of possibilities. Home sold as-is. Seller to do no inspections or repairs.

14. 2026-04-01
    listed $80,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Welcome home to this charming brick bungalow full of opportunity and comfort! This inviting home features 2 bedrooms and spacious rooms that offer plenty of space to relax, gather, and make your own. Step outside and enjoy a level yard—perfect for outdoor fun, gardening, or simply unwinding. The detached garage adds extra convenience and storage. With so much potential, this home is a great chance to create the space you’ve been dreaming of. Whether you're just starting out, downsizing, or looking for your next investment, this property is full of possibilities. Home sold as-is. Seller to do no inspections or repairs.

15. 2025-02-21
    status Pending
16. 2025-01-06
    listed $119,900 Active
17. 2023-07-05
    soldstatus
18. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus
19. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,106
• After-tax cash flow: $4,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+64.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $70,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,035 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.