406 Ellsworth St · Fossil, OR 97830

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1940 5,227 sqft lot $119/sqft · at area comps Est $151k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this cozy little house in the country with beautiful views overlooking Fossil! This charming 2-bedroom, 1 full bathroom home offers comfortable living in a peaceful setting.The spacious living room features a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and frames the scenic view. The intimate kitchen is functional and welcoming, making great use of space for everyday living. A dedicated utility room adds convenience and extra storage.Recent upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new mini-split system for efficient heating and cooling, new water heater, all new electrical, and a new roof — making this home move-in ready.Outside, you’ll find a garage plus a wonderful outbuilding perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop space. The large yard offers plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, or summer BBQs with friends and family.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, updates, and country charm with a view.Don’t miss your chance to enjoy small-town living with modern improvements already in place!

Key facts

• Large picture window
• New water heater
• New electrical

Tags

• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM
• NEW MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#138 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Fossil SD 21J (rural): math 36% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 183 in OR (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Wheeler County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $150k implies a 597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,291 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,505
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -0.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
950 B St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,358 (+8%)	17mo	$200,000	$147	63
101 First St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+5%)	5mo	$141,400	$107	54
808 B St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,444 (+15%)	14mo	$284,000	$197	50
575 Seventh St	0.36mi	4/1.0	1,400 (+11%)	19mo	$175,000	$125	49
407 Second St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,118 (-11%)	20mo	$193,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $42,255
• Equity at exit: $86,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $121,737
• Equity at exit: $151,685

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97830

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $964/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $135	+0% $92	+5% $50	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $41	+0% $92	+5% $144	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $131	base $92	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $149,900 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-03-10
   status Active 1148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

   Enjoy this cozy little house in the country with beautiful views overlooking Fossil! This charming 2-bedroom, 1 full bathroom home offers comfortable living in a peaceful setting.The spacious living room features a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and frames the scenic view. The intimate kitchen is functional and welcoming, making great use of space for everyday living. A dedicated utility room adds convenience and extra storage.Recent upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new mini-split system for efficient heating and cooling, new water heater, all new electrical, and a new roof — making this home move-in ready.Outside, you’ll find a garage plus a wonderful outbuilding perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop space. The large yard offers plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, or summer BBQs with friends and family.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, updates, and country charm with a view.Don’t miss your chance to enjoy small-town living with modern improvements already in place!

10. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 1148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

    Enjoy this cozy little house in the country with beautiful views overlooking Fossil! This charming 2-bedroom, 1 full bathroom home offers comfortable living in a peaceful setting.The spacious living room features a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and frames the scenic view. The intimate kitchen is functional and welcoming, making great use of space for everyday living. A dedicated utility room adds convenience and extra storage.Recent upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new mini-split system for efficient heating and cooling, new water heater, all new electrical, and a new roof — making this home move-in ready.Outside, you’ll find a garage plus a wonderful outbuilding perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop space. The large yard offers plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, or summer BBQs with friends and family.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, updates, and country charm with a view.Don’t miss your chance to enjoy small-town living with modern improvements already in place!

11. 2026-03-02
    listed $149,900 Active 1148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1148 chars)

    Enjoy this cozy little house in the country with beautiful views overlooking Fossil! This charming 2-bedroom, 1 full bathroom home offers comfortable living in a peaceful setting.The spacious living room features a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and frames the scenic view. The intimate kitchen is functional and welcoming, making great use of space for everyday living. A dedicated utility room adds convenience and extra storage.Recent upgrades provide peace of mind, including a new mini-split system for efficient heating and cooling, new water heater, all new electrical, and a new roof — making this home move-in ready.Outside, you’ll find a garage plus a wonderful outbuilding perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop space. The large yard offers plenty of room for gardening, entertaining, or summer BBQs with friends and family.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, updates, and country charm with a view.Don’t miss your chance to enjoy small-town living with modern improvements already in place!

12. 2002-06-10
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $964 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$490/yr (+$41/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$964
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $1,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fossil SD 21J
• NCES district ID: 4105250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,090
• Composite: 43.8/100
• National rank: #6347
• State rank: #45 of 183 in OR

Livability — Fossil

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #8033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fossil, OR
• Population (ZIP): 621

Population outlook (Wheeler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,195 people
• By 2030: 1,087 · -9.0%
• By 2040: 878 · -26.5%
• By 2050: 756 · -36.7%
• By 2075: 643 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 638 · -46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wheeler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 24.3% · R 71.4% · Other 4.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.7pp · 2024: -47.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Current HPI: 222.5504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+597.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $149,900 RMLS
• 2002-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $964 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.