2190 Winterberry Ln · Cambridge, MD 21613

$299,990

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,117 sqft · Townhouse · 135 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2,014 sqft lot $142/sqft · 25% below area Est $398k · 25% under $265/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three-story townhome offers a two-car garage and a first-floor recreation room ready for customization. The second floor boasts an open layout connecting the kitchen, dining area, and Great Room, with an optional deck for outdoor living. The top level includes all three bedrooms, with the option to add a fourth floor featuring a loft or a fifth bedroom.

Key facts

• 6th green
• Open green space
• Backyard views

Tags

• 6TH GREEN
• BACKYARD VIEWS
• OPEN GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maple Elementary School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #740 of 860 statewide, top 87%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Mace'S Lane Middle School (math 2% / reading 16%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 481 students, 100% FRL); Cambridge-South Dorchester High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #151 of 222 statewide, top 68%, 784 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,546/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,737 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,191
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -24.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2186 Winterberry Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,148 (+2%)	6mo	$279,990	$130	91
2164 Winterberry Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,172 (+3%)	3mo	$392,645	$181	89
2146 Winterberry Ln	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,195 (+4%)	4mo	$309,990	$141	86
2194 Winterberry Ln Unit G	0.09mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,148 (+2%)	10mo	$272,990	$127	80
2188 Winterberry Ln Unit G	0.02mi	3/3.0	2,461 (+16%)	11mo	$352,990	$143	63
2700 Willow Oak Dr Unit 111B	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-19%)	6mo	$226,000	$131	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-69,208
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,229
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 37.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $342,940 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 21613

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,960

Max offer price $252,737

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-119	-5% $-223	+0% $-327	+5% $-430	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-427	+0% $-327	+5% $-226	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-250	base $-327	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2914 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	4.0	3.5	2148	$2,600	$1.21	93d	1	0.04mi
2208 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1919	$2,450	$1.28	93d	1	0.12mi
2214 Winterberry Ln Unit I Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1945	$2,450	$1.26	93d	1	0.14mi
2108 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.15mi
2104 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,500	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
2102 Winterberry Ln Cambridge, MD	3.0	2.5	1909	$2,800	$1.47	93d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,990 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $299,990 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $299,990 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 109 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 108 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 107 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 106 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 105 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 73 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 72 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,171
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,585–$31,755 screening

This well-maintained townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a desirable location. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be further enhanced with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 16/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Maple Elementary School F MD #740/860 Nat'l #40,442/41,679 Middle Mace's Lane Middle School F MD #212/225 Nat'l #13,515/14,009 High Cambridge-South Dorchester High School F MD #151/222 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dorchester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400300
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,767
• Composite: 14.65/100
• National rank: #9404
• State rank: #23 of 24 in MD

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Cambridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #13046

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cambridge, MD
• County: Dorchester · 31,699 people
• Population (ZIP): 18,167
• Household income: $53,171
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Dorchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,699 people
• By 2030: 31,054 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,712 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 28,618 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 28,436 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 28,937 · -8.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dorchester

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.6% · R 56.1% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+16.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.03%
• Current HPI: 271.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $299,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Listed $309,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $371,240 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $334,940 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $337,040 Zillow
• 2025-04-24 Listed $371,240 Zillow