22241 Nisqually #31 · Apple Valley, CA 92308

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2005 $100/sqft · at area comps Est $172k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 4-bedroom, 2-bath beauty in the highly desired gated Vista Del Rosa Senior Community in Apple Valley! From the moment you step inside, you’ll love the open layout, vaulted ceilings, and warm, inviting feel. The heart of the home is the large kitchen with an island and abundant cabinet space, perfect for cooking, baking, entertaining, and making memories with the grandkids. All appliances included in the sale. Wood look flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms. Carpet in the living room and bedrooms. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while extra bedrooms give room for guests, hobbies, or even a home office. Extra long and wide driveway may fit up to six cars. Bonus Features You’ll Love: Handicap-accessible ramps (front & garage entry). Bright, open living spaces. Low-maintenance landscaping. Quiet, well-kept neighborhood. Community Perks Include: Pool & spa, Clubhouse, Planned Social activities, Dog park, Tennis & basketball courts, Gated entry and On-site Management. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and community—all in one place! Close to shopping and the Apple Valley Senior Center, where you can participate in senior activities and build relationships with other local seniors. Call today and schedule a private showing of this lovely home sweet home!!

Key facts

• Wood look flooring
• Dog park
• Clubhouse

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN WITH AN ISLAND
• WOOD LOOK FLOORING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• COMMUNITY POOL AND SPA
• CLUBHOUSE
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $790 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.91%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,323
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 3.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22241 Nisqually Rd #98	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,723 (-3%)	8mo	$195,000	$113	88
22241 Nisqually Rd #27	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,782 (0%)	14mo	$175,000	$98	83
22241 Nisqually Rd #139	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (+3%)	15mo	$178,900	$98	78
22241 Nisqually #124	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,563 (-12%)	2mo	$175,000	$112	72
22241 Nisqually Rd #85	0.00mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,836 (+3%)	17mo	$185,000	$101	72
22241 Nisqually Rd #71	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (-11%)	9mo	$165,000	$104	70
22241 Nisqually Rd #106	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	15mo	$175,000	$108	67
22241 Nisqually Rd #54	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-9%)	16mo	$161,000	$99	66
22241 Nisqually Rd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-14%)	10mo	$198,000	$129	63
22241 Nisqually Rd #158	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,542 (-14%)	11mo	$203,200	$132	63
22241 Nisqually Rd #24	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-11%)	18mo	$160,000	$101	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $24,376
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $98,946
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92308

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $756/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $790

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $841	+0% $790	+5% $739	+10% $689
Rent	-10% $603	-5% $697	+0% $790	+5% $883	+10% $977
Rate	-1.0pp $880	-0.5pp $836	base $790	+0.5pp $744	+1.0pp $696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12406 Pawnee Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,200	$1.48	17d	1	0.68mi
22544 Sioux Rd Unit 31 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,795	$1.45	20d	1	0.78mi
22873 Ottawa Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,000	$1.30	44d	1	1.00mi
13207 Franceska Rd Apple Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,050	$1.42	0d	1	1.18mi
21256 Vidal Ct Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,550	$1.65	44d	1	1.21mi
22854 Itasca Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1814	$1,995	$1.10	22d	1	1.28mi
22039 Biloxi Ave Unit 2-3 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	44d	1	1.30mi
21247 Chardonnay Dr Apple Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	2282	$2,695	$1.18	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $179,000 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Welcome home to this 4-bedroom, 2-bath beauty in the highly desired gated Vista Del Rosa Senior Community in Apple Valley! From the moment you step inside, you’ll love the open layout, vaulted ceilings, and warm, inviting feel. The heart of the home is the large kitchen with an island and abundant cabinet space, perfect for cooking, baking, entertaining, and making memories with the grandkids. All appliances included in the sale. Wood look flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms. Carpet in the living room and bedrooms. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while extra bedrooms give room for guests, hobbies, or even a home office. Extra long and wide driveway may fit up to six cars. Bonus Features You’ll Love: Handicap-accessible ramps (front & garage entry). Bright, open living spaces. Low-maintenance landscaping. Quiet, well-kept neighborhood. Community Perks Include: Pool & spa, Clubhouse, Planned Social activities, Dog park, Tennis & basketball courts, Gated entry and On-site Management. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and community—all in one place! Close to shopping and the Apple Valley Senior Center, where you can participate in senior activities and build relationships with other local seniors. Call today and schedule a private showing of this lovely home sweet home!!

16. 2026-03-28
    listed $189,900 Active 1334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1334 chars)

    Welcome home to this 4-bedroom, 2-bath beauty in the highly desired gated Vista Del Rosa Senior Community in Apple Valley! From the moment you step inside, you’ll love the open layout, vaulted ceilings, and warm, inviting feel. The heart of the home is the large kitchen with an island and abundant cabinet space, perfect for cooking, baking, entertaining, and making memories with the grandkids. All appliances included in the sale. Wood look flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms. Carpet in the living room and bedrooms. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while extra bedrooms give room for guests, hobbies, or even a home office. Extra long and wide driveway may fit up to six cars. Bonus Features You’ll Love: Handicap-accessible ramps (front & garage entry). Bright, open living spaces. Low-maintenance landscaping. Quiet, well-kept neighborhood. Community Perks Include: Pool & spa, Clubhouse, Planned Social activities, Dog park, Tennis & basketball courts, Gated entry and On-site Management. Enjoy comfort, convenience, and community—all in one place! Close to shopping and the Apple Valley Senior Center, where you can participate in senior activities and build relationships with other local seniors. Call today and schedule a private showing of this lovely home sweet home!!

17. 2021-11-29
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed Sale 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    located in a beautiful senior mobile home park that is one of the best in the High Desert! This home is large and well kept, with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a dining room, large family room/living room, and a 2 car garage. There is a nice covered, concrete patio in the back yard.

18. 2021-10-09
    status Pending Sale 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    located in a beautiful senior mobile home park that is one of the best in the High Desert! This home is large and well kept, with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a dining room, large family room/living room, and a 2 car garage. There is a nice covered, concrete patio in the back yard.

19. 2021-09-23
    listed $155,000 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    located in a beautiful senior mobile home park that is one of the best in the High Desert! This home is large and well kept, with 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a dining room, large family room/living room, and a 2 car garage. There is a nice covered, concrete patio in the back yard.

20. 2017-02-13
    soldstatus $63,000
21. 2016-10-20
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 80.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$756
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $6,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $7,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,709
• Household income: $66,568
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1389.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.60%
• Current HPI: 359.2305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.30%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+138.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (MLS) $155,000 CRMLS
• 2021-10-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2017-02-13 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CRMLS
• 2016-10-20 Listed $75,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $756 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.