4420 E Katie Cir · Prescott Valley, AZ 86314

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1979 5,662 sqft lot Est $195k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and cozy manufactured home in Prescott Valley! Schedule your viewing today for this beautifully updated home that offers a fresh start with all new features such as a brand new roof, fresh paint, new flooring throughout, upgraded appliances, and stunning quartz countertops. With a blank slate interior, this home is ready for you to make it your own! Whether you're a first time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a great investment, this property is a fantastic opportunity in a desirable location.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Prescott Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#126 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humboldt Unified District (4469) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #94 of 249 in AZ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Traditional School (math 56% / reading 53%, grade C, #208 of 1,109 statewide, top 19%, 785 students, 39% FRL); Bradshaw Mountain Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 280 students, 55% FRL); Bradshaw Mountain High School (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #222 of 381 statewide, top 59%, 1,697 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 455 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,880
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4361 N Mobile Cir E	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	897 (+7%)	9mo	$106,500	$119	68
4501 N Parent Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	897 (+7%)	16mo	$250,000	$279	65
8875 E Cheryl Dr	0.44mi	2/1.5	799 (-5%)	18mo	$185,000	$232	54
4400 N Ranger Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	721 (-14%)	19mo	$135,100	$187	50
8801 E Totem Cir	0.64mi	2/3.0	891 (+6%)	13mo	$40,000	$45	45
4886 N Meixner Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	20mo	$315,000	$328	37
8835 Blackfoot Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	18mo	$255,000	$266	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,244
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,739
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86314

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $259	+0% $207	+5% $155	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $145	+0% $207	+5% $269	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $245	base $207	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4340 N Romero Cir E Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	785	$1,300	$1.66	22d	1	0.11mi
4500 N Carla Vista Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	45d	1	0.27mi
4561 N Preston Dr Apt 3 Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,700	$2.72	45d	1	0.35mi
4561 N Preston Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	624	$1,650	$2.64	45d	1	0.35mi
4400 N Phillip Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	999	$1,550	$1.55	45d	1	0.48mi
4713 N Harlequin Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	911	$1,375	$1.51	22d	1	0.51mi
4621 N Ocotillo Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	992	$1,875	$1.89	15d	1	0.53mi
4786 N Jean Ct Apt 01 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	758	$1,150	$1.52	22d	1	0.64mi
3866 E Teri Ct Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	15d	1	0.65mi
4357 N Miner Rd Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	45d	1	0.68mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$2,000	$2.11	45d	1	0.69mi
8396 E Stevens Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.69mi
8135 E Ashley Dr Apt A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	45d	1	0.75mi
7939 Spouse Dr Apt 1 Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	22d	1	0.81mi
7781 Spouse Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,350	$1.48	22d	1	0.92mi
8132 E Lakeshore Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	890	$1,400	$1.57	45d	1	0.96mi
7749 E Spouse Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	860	$1,550	$1.80	22d	1	0.96mi
9665 E Magma Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	22d	1	0.98mi
3279 N Corrine Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	738	$1,400	$1.90	45d	1	1.15mi
3290 N Bumblebee Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	15d	1	1.16mi
9800 E Lakeshore Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	15d	1	1.16mi
3830 N Windsong Dr Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$2,034	$1.85	15d	22	1.18mi
3231 N Corrine Dr Unit B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,500	$1.58	45d	1	1.19mi
3184 N Truwood Dr Unit D Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	22d	1	1.23mi
8683 E Commons Cir Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,785	$2.14	15d	5	1.27mi
7431 E Lobo Way Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	785	$1,650	$2.10	15d	1	1.28mi
3148 N Navajo Dr Unit C Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,425	$1.39	22d	1	1.30mi
3123 N Corrine Dr Apt B Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1111	$1,595	$1.44	45d	1	1.30mi
8113 E Long Mesa Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	616	$1,500	$2.44	22d	1	1.37mi
3028 N Corrine Dr Unit A Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	889	$1,600	$1.80	22d	1	1.39mi
3230 N Victor Rd Unit C Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	15d	1	1.40mi
7267 Spouse Dr Unit C Prescott Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,295	$1.50	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   status Active
3. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-27
   price $150,000
5. 2026-01-23
   listed $165,000 Active
6. 2025-11-20
   price $150,000
7. 2025-10-31
   price $160,000
8. 2025-10-22
   status Active
9. 2025-10-22
   price $199,000
10. 2025-10-22
    historical
11. 2025-10-10
    status Pending
12. 2025-09-26
    status Active
13. 2025-09-05
    status Pending
14. 2025-08-16
    price $170,000
15. 2025-06-18
    price $175,000
16. 2025-05-15
    price $185,000
17. 2025-05-08
    listed $199,000 Active
18. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $390,000
19. 2005-08-05
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humboldt Unified District (4469)
• NCES district ID: 0403870
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6605
• State rank: #94 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Prescott Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #16160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prescott Valley, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 63,155
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 40,317
• Household income: $69,208
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1236.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.27%
• Current HPI: 370.04
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $150,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $150,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $160,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listing Removed — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $199,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $170,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $175,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $185,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Listed $199,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $283 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.