572 Bear Paw Rd SW · Shallotte, NC 28462

$221,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,382 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,920 sqft lot Est $257k · 14% under $89/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Fox Run, offering new homes with thoughtful details and smart designs plus a convenient location. The Westport floor plan features an open flow between the kitchen, dining and living area that is great for entertaining. The well-designed floorplan offers the open concept layout and a space that can be decorated and lived-in in many ways. The kitchen comes complete with a center island, granite countertops, a pantry closet, , 36'' cabinets and stainless steel appliances including a refrigerator! Beautiful vinyl flooring throughout the first level main living areas! A second floor owner's suite is spacious with a walk in closet and a bathroom that features double sinks and 5' wal

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• 36 cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• 36 CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-407/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,162 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,052
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
390 Red Fox St NW	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,401 (+1%)	14mo	$298,900	$213	69
4580 Squirrel Ave NW	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	1mo	$204,500	$164	60
4496 East Coast Ln Unit 241- Kerry B	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	7mo	$275,000	$186	48
4496 Lot 241- Kerry B East Coast Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	7mo	$275,000	$186	48
4243 Milkweed Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-7%)	10mo	$260,000	$203	46
4243 Milkweed Rd Unit 256- Devon B	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-7%)	10mo	$260,000	$203	46
4470 East Coast Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	10mo	$282,000	$191	44
4470 East Coast Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	10mo	$282,000	$191	44
4477 East Coast Ln Unit 235- Kerry B	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	11mo	$273,990	$186	43
4477 Lot 235- Kerry B East Coast Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	11mo	$273,990	$186	43
4262 Milkweed Rd Unit 252- Kerry B	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	22mo	$268,000	$182	35
4262 Lot 252- Kerry B Milkweed Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+7%)	22mo	$268,000	$182	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,049
• Equity at exit: $33,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,570
• Equity at exit: $19,194

Cash invested: $62,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,330/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $217,078

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $43	+0% $-34	+5% $-111	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-113	+0% $-34	+5% $46	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $23	base $-34	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,498
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $89 · $1,068/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   listed $221,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$3,330
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$4,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's interior and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's interior and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 11,219
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 269.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $221,990 Hive MLS