Baja Plan · San Antonio, TX 78264

$151,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 496 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 496 days

🏗️ New construction. The $151,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $177,184.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $152k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 496 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $133,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 496 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,184
• List price: $151,999
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Carnelian Trl	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$138,999	$117	95
20606 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$135,999	$114	93
20503 Andalusite Way	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$137,999	$116	93
20564 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$142,999	$120	92
20511 Andalusite Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$137,999	$116	92
20556 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	3mo	$135,999	$114	92
20642 Andalusite Way	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$157,999	$133	92
20618 Andalusite Way	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$137,999	$116	92
20540 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	4mo	$137,999	$116	91
20626 Andalusite Way	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	0mo	$146,999	$108	69
20568 Andalusite Way	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	3mo	$168,999	$124	68
20614 Andalusite Way	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	2mo	$148,999	$110	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $20,388
• Equity at exit: $89,267

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $75,937
• Equity at exit: $145,552

Cash invested: $49,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$929
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,658/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,550

Max offer price $154,469

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,296
• Closing costs: $5,316
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3008 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,195	$1.01	2d	1	0.04mi
2906 Carnelian Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,550	$1.14	43d	1	0.04mi
20447 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,320	$1.07	24d	1	0.05mi
20356 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1013	$1,199	$1.18	17d	1	0.06mi
20448 Red Coral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	24d	1	0.08mi
20310 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	741	$1,300	$1.75	43d	1	0.08mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,400	$1.16	16d	1	0.11mi
20305 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1207	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	0.11mi
20618 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,450	$1.23	4d	1	0.12mi
20642 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	22d	1	0.13mi
20511 Andalusite Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,450	$1.22	17d	1	0.14mi
2807 Ruby Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,400	$1.10	24d	1	0.15mi
3230 S Loop 1604 E Unit B1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$895	$1.17	2d	1	0.43mi
20335 Campbellton Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,450	$1.04	43d	1	0.49mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit B03 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	24d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit A08 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$995	$0.82	2d	1	0.52mi
3230 South Loop 1604 E Unit B03 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$950	$1.06	2d	1	0.52mi
20823 Pinon Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,650	$1.18	43d	1	1.02mi
19230 FM 1937 #4 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,450	$1.10	24d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $151,999 Active 496 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $151,999 Active 495 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $151,999 Active 494 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $151,999 Active 493 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,999 Active 491 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $151,999 Active 490 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $151,999 Active 487 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,999 Active 487 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,999 Active 486 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,999 Active 485 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $152,999 Active 482 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,999 Active 481 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,999 Active 480 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,999 Active 479 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,999 Active 478 DOM
16. 2025-12-08
    price $152,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

17. 2025-12-04
    price $154,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

18. 2025-11-23
    price $159,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

19. 2025-11-16
    price $163,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

20. 2025-10-23
    price $166,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

21. 2025-09-01
    price $170,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

22. 2025-08-23
    price $175,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

23. 2025-04-04
    price $195,999 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

24. 2025-02-08
    listed $193,999 Active 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner's suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,658
• − Insurance: −$886
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$5,154
• Taxable loss: −$5,002
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a classic layout and modern finishes. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some smart home upgrades to further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home stand out.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters alike.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home stand out. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters alike. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $152,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $154,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $159,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $163,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $166,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $170,999 Zillow
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $175,999 Zillow
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $195,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Listed $193,999 Zillow