68 Pine Tar Ln NE · Gumbranch, GA 31316

$108,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.6% in Gumbranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 409 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($753 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.60%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Cheryl Ct NE	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-15%)	18mo	$196,000	$109	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $54,020
• Equity at exit: $38,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $134,361
• Equity at exit: $51,306

Cash invested: $30,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 409
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $896/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $108,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,225
• Closing costs: $3,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

3. 2026-04-02
   status Under Contract 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $108,900 Active
5. 2026-03-24
   listed $108,900 Active 264-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

6. 2026-03-24
   listed $108,900 New 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Investor special!! This is a 2003 Champion 30 x 70 mobile home w/ Serial number 11439544. Home is being sold AS-IS. Lots of potential for an investor to customize and flip. Situated on an acre lot with Septic and well in place. Metal roof is approx 2-3 years old

7. 2003-12-10
   soldstatus $136,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $896 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,002 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,100
• − Property taxes: −$896
• − Insurance: −$544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$3,168
• Taxable income: $8,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $7,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumbranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #18664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Long County · 13,812 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HABR
• 2026-04-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $108,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $108,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $108,900 HABR
• 2003-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $136,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $896 · -35.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.