5630 Spring Meadow Dr · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$277,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1996 0.45 ac lot $170/sqft · 14% below area Est $323k · 14% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER PROPERTY IS NO LONGER ON HUD WEBSITE - Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD, home being sold ''AS IS'' Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition Case #541-919819 IE (insured escrow) 203K Eligible subject to appraisal. EHO How to submit an offer and property condition report attached and is also available at HudHomeStore.com property managed by kmmrealty.com 3-bedroom, 2-bath1,630 SF home on a nearly half-acre lot with attached garage in Nottingham Park South Roanoke County

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-791/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,626 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,563
• List price: $277,000
• Delta: -14.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5579 Cynthia Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-6%)	8mo	$309,950	$202	79
5712 Littlehorn Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+3%)	2mo	$260,000	$155	73
5962 Two Ford Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+12%)	2mo	$335,000	$184	51
5207 Green Meadow Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-12%)	13mo	$294,500	$206	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,361
• Equity at exit: $41,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-49,517
• Equity at exit: $23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,303/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,350

Max offer price $265,348

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5220 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,695	$1.35	44d	1	0.61mi
5204 Lakeland Dr Roanoke, VA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,595	$1.30	44d	1	0.65mi
4630 Roxbury Ln Cave Spring, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	930	$1,625	$1.75	13d	7	1.12mi
4356 Old Garst Ml Rd Cave Spring, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	889	$1,341	$1.51	13d	14	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER PROPERTY IS NO LONGER ON HUD WEBSITE - Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD, home being sold ''AS IS'' Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition Case #541-919819 IE (insured escrow) 203K Eligible subject to appraisal. EHO How to submit an offer and property condition report attached and is also available at HudHomeStore.com property managed by kmmrealty.com 3-bedroom, 2-bath1,630 SF home on a nearly half-acre lot with attached garage in Nottingham Park South Roanoke County

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $277,000 Active 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   SELLER HAS ACCEPTED AN OFFER PROPERTY IS NO LONGER ON HUD WEBSITE - Property is owned by the US Dept of HUD, home being sold ''AS IS'' Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition Case #541-919819 IE (insured escrow) 203K Eligible subject to appraisal. EHO How to submit an offer and property condition report attached and is also available at HudHomeStore.com property managed by kmmrealty.com 3-bedroom, 2-bath1,630 SF home on a nearly half-acre lot with attached garage in Nottingham Park South Roanoke County

3. 2005-02-15
   soldstatus $205,000 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   GREAT 1 LEVEL LIVING HOME. OPEN FLOOR PLAN. WONDERFUL SCREENED-IN PORCH - SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN WITH LARGE MASTER BEDROOM AND HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET LEVEL LOT - PRIVATE FENCED BACK YARD.

4. 2005-02-01
   soldstatus $205,000
5. 2004-11-19
   listed $209,950 180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (180 chars)

   GREAT 1 LEVEL LIVING HOME. OPEN FLOOR PLAN. WONDERFUL SCREENED-IN PORCH - SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN WITH LARGE MASTER BEDROOM AND HUGE WALK-IN CLOSET LEVEL LOT - PRIVATE FENCED BACK YARD.

6. 2003-09-17
   soldstatus $190,000
7. 2003-09-01
   soldstatus $190,000
8. 2003-09-01
   soldstatus $190,000
9. 2003-06-12
   listed $190,000
10. 2000-10-27
    soldstatus $179,000
11. 2000-10-12
    listed $179,000
12. 1996-07-01
    soldstatus $143,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,303 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$3,303
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$5,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Spring, VA
• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+93.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MLSRV
• 2026-04-15 Listed $277,000 MLSRV
• 2005-02-15 Sold (MLS) $205,000 MLSRV
• 2005-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-19 Listed $209,950 MLSRV
• 2003-09-17 Sold (MLS) $190,000 MLSRV
• 2003-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2003-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-12 Listed $190,000 MLSRV
• 2000-10-27 Sold (MLS) $179,000 MLSRV
• 2000-10-12 Listed $179,000 MLSRV
• 1996-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,303 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.