104 Island Dr · Lake City, TX 78368

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2001 0.50 ac lot $99/sqft · 17% below area Est $188k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’ve been searching for a home with land in a quiet community, this property offers space, comfort, and flexibility. Located in Lake City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a spacious half-acre lot, providing room to spread out while still being within a short drive of nearby conveniences. Buyers looking for homes with land, affordable properties on larger lots, or homes with outdoor entertaining space will appreciate what this property offers. Inside, the home features a welcoming living room with a fireplace, creating a comfortable gathering space. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, making meal prep and organization easy. A separate laundry room with space for an additional refrigerator adds practical storage and functionality. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the outdoor living areas. A covered back deck offers a relaxing place for morning coffee or evening downtime. The covered pavilion with a concrete pad is ideal for cookouts, entertaining, or weekend gatherings. The half-acre lot is fenced on three sides and includes an older storage building/barn, offering room for tools, equipment, or projects. Furniture is negotiable, creating a convenient move-in opportunity for buyers looking for a primary residence or a property with room to personalize. Properties with this much outdoor space and versatility don’t come along often. Schedule your showing and see the potential this property offers.

Key facts

• Covered back deck
• Half acre lot
• Covered pavilion

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• COVERED BACK DECK
• COVERED PAVILION
• FENCED ON THREE SIDES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($739/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Mathis ISD (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #528 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,983 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,554
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -17.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Island Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-0%)	1mo	$155,000	$99	99
104 Baldwin	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+7%)	12mo	$225,000	$134	57
106 Baldwin	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	20mo	$149,900	$89	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $34,290
• Equity at exit: $82,143

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $103,004
• Equity at exit: $137,269

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78368

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1582 chars)

   If you’ve been searching for a home with land in a quiet community, this property offers space, comfort, and flexibility. Located in Lake City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a spacious half-acre lot, providing room to spread out while still being within a short drive of nearby conveniences. Buyers looking for homes with land, affordable properties on larger lots, or homes with outdoor entertaining space will appreciate what this property offers. Inside, the home features a welcoming living room with a fireplace, creating a comfortable gathering space. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, making meal prep and organization easy. A separate laundry room with space for an additional refrigerator adds practical storage and functionality. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the outdoor living areas. A covered back deck offers a relaxing place for morning coffee or evening downtime. The covered pavilion with a concrete pad is ideal for cookouts, entertaining, or weekend gatherings. The half-acre lot is fenced on three sides and includes an older storage building/barn, offering room for tools, equipment, or projects. Furniture is negotiable, creating a convenient move-in opportunity for buyers looking for a primary residence or a property with room to personalize. Properties with this much outdoor space and versatility don’t come along often. Schedule your showing and see the potential this property offers.

2. 2026-03-04
   listed $155,000 Active 1582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1582 chars)

   If you’ve been searching for a home with land in a quiet community, this property offers space, comfort, and flexibility. Located in Lake City, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home sits on a spacious half-acre lot, providing room to spread out while still being within a short drive of nearby conveniences. Buyers looking for homes with land, affordable properties on larger lots, or homes with outdoor entertaining space will appreciate what this property offers. Inside, the home features a welcoming living room with a fireplace, creating a comfortable gathering space. The kitchen offers ample cabinet storage, making meal prep and organization easy. A separate laundry room with space for an additional refrigerator adds practical storage and functionality. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms provide flexible space for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Step outside and enjoy the outdoor living areas. A covered back deck offers a relaxing place for morning coffee or evening downtime. The covered pavilion with a concrete pad is ideal for cookouts, entertaining, or weekend gatherings. The half-acre lot is fenced on three sides and includes an older storage building/barn, offering room for tools, equipment, or projects. Furniture is negotiable, creating a convenient move-in opportunity for buyers looking for a primary residence or a property with room to personalize. Properties with this much outdoor space and versatility don’t come along often. Schedule your showing and see the potential this property offers.

3. 2026-01-03
   price $165,000
4. 2025-10-24
   price $184,000
5. 2025-08-30
   listed $189,000 Active
6. 2010-03-31
   soldstatus
7. 2003-11-14
   soldstatus
8. 2002-05-04
   listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,024/yr (+$85/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$449
• After-tax cash flow: $1,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mathis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,954
• Composite: 29.47/100
• National rank: #6509
• State rank: #528 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #20606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,474

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 33% Two or more races 32%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.39%
• Current HPI: 98.6577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+245.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $155,000 CBMLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $165,000 CBMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $184,000 CBMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $189,000 CBMLS
• 2010-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-05-04 Listed $44,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · -13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.