412 W Gracelawn Ave · Flint, MI 48505

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1951 5,227 sqft lot ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Flint. move in ready!! Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 55 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Gebrael Management; Listing agent: Christopher Gebrael
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; 900 square feet above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 51 x 104 x 50 x 104; Located in Suburban Gardens subdivision; Cross streets: W Home Ave and Martin Luther King Ave

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($930 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.89%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $25,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 W Gracelawn Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	8mo	$4,669	$5	93
302 W Gracelawn Ave	0.06mi	2/1.0	832 (-4%)	8mo	$16,000	$19	84
626 W Austin Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	869 (+1%)	1mo	$34,000	$39	77
518 W Ruth Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	3mo	$28,000	$34	74
306 W Parkway Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	918 (+6%)	8mo	$14,900	$16	71
638 W Pulaski Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	870 (+1%)	9mo	$13,000	$15	67
5909 Edwards Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+8%)	10mo	$20,600	$22	59
813 Chatham Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	942 (+9%)	1mo	$33,700	$36	58
329 W Pulaski Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	923 (+7%)	9mo	$31,000	$34	57
246 E York St	0.66mi	2/1.0	800 (-7%)	1mo	$22,500	$28	56
5722 Susan St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	989 (+14%)	8mo	$33,000	$33	42
1108 W Mott Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+12%)	12mo	$29,500	$30	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $26,421
• Equity at exit: $19,370

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $64,689
• Equity at exit: $29,230

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48505

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $499

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 W Alma Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$925	$1.03	13d	1	0.50mi
246 E York Ave Flint, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	13d	1	0.66mi
5905 Griggs Dr Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	940	$1,000	$1.06	13d	1	0.85mi
711 W Dewey St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1011	$925	$0.91	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $44,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $49,900 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Flint. move in ready!! Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

18. 2026-05-11
    price $49,900
19. 2026-04-24
    listed $54,900 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Flint. move in ready!! Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

20. 2026-04-24
    listed $54,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath home in Flint. move in ready!! Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

21. 2025-10-01
    historical
22. 2025-10-01
    historical
23. 2025-06-09
    price $75,000
24. 2025-06-09
    price $75,000
25. 2025-04-22
    listed $79,900 Active
26. 2025-04-22
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$893
• − Management: −$893
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $3,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$877
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 93,814
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 18,032
• Household income: $33,283
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 79% White 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 202.4878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-24 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-04-22 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.