Plan 1491 Modeled Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$254,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Dual-sink vanity at primary bathroom * Low-e windows * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen tile backsplash * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Near local schools * Close to popular restaurants * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Picnic areas

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Low-e windows
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $259,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1491 Modeled); Located in Princeton, TX
• Construction: New construction (modeled plan)
• Exterior features: Modeled new construction home (Plan 1491); Living area approximately 1491

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details not provided)

🏗️ New construction. The $254,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,374.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-729 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,569 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,374
• List price: $254,995
• Delta: -21.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1426 Kingsbridge Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,491 (0%)	19mo	$340,602	$228	81
777 Saxony Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,491 (0%)	3mo	$279,955	$188	79
418 Boroughbridge Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+5%)	17mo	$335,249	$214	70
622 Windsor Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+5%)	17mo	$343,293	$219	65
412 Princewood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+12%)	18mo	$325,995	$195	61
649 Saxony Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+12%)	10mo	$299,990	$179	52
663 Saxony Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+12%)	10mo	$302,772	$181	52
677 Jupe Way	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+12%)	9mo	$317,630	$190	52
721 Saxony Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,675 (+12%)	8mo	$316,000	$189	52
523 Oxford Loop	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+8%)	19mo	$234,900	$146	41
417 Harvard Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-11%)	16mo	$239,500	$180	37
808 Sicily Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,674 (+12%)	13mo	$391,949	$234	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-105,904
• Equity at exit: $49,409

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-174,281
• Equity at exit: $28,651

Cash invested: $92,785 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,738
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,971/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-729

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $225,849

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-615	+0% $-729	+5% $-844	+10% $-958
Rent	-10% $-885	-5% $-807	+0% $-729	+5% $-651	+10% $-573
Rate	-1.0pp $-562	-0.5pp $-645	base $-729	+0.5pp $-815	+1.0pp $-902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,843
• Closing costs: $9,941
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
353 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	0.00mi
461 Princewood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$1,750	$1.00	25d	1	0.09mi
622 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,000	$1.28	45d	1	0.24mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	14d	1	0.26mi
649 Saxony Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,100	$1.25	0d	1	0.26mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,799	$1.87	45d	23	0.35mi
200 Cole St Princeton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$1,263	$1.51	0d	8	0.35mi
149 Princeton Xrds Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,889	$1.93	0d	22	0.35mi
250 N Boorman Ln Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,619	$4.93	0d	1	0.40mi
899 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,780	$1.80	0d	13	0.43mi
1823 Dahlia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,950	$1.08	8d	1	0.48mi
1707 Cotton Blossom Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,095	$1.16	6d	1	0.48mi
263 Honeysuckle Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	0.51mi
219 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,795	$1.00	18d	1	0.52mi
305 Turquoise Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,850	$1.02	14d	1	0.52mi
313 Sweet Pea Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$1,900	$1.05	4d	1	0.54mi
1911 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$1,900	$1.05	0d	1	0.56mi
1917 Lilac Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,045	$1.11	45d	1	0.57mi
306 Golden Sands Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,995	$1.10	45d	1	0.58mi
291 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	45d	1	0.58mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	8d	1	0.60mi
514 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	0d	1	0.60mi
514 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,475	$1.07	25d	1	0.60mi
514 E Hazelwood St Unit B Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	45d	1	0.60mi
264 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	16d	1	0.60mi
512 E Hazelwood St Unit A Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,349	$1.04	45d	1	0.60mi
1712 Sandalwood Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.61mi
502 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,550	$1.20	45d	1	0.62mi
304 Wandering Stream Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,875	$1.04	45d	1	0.63mi
280 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	6d	1	0.67mi
281 Moonstone Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,895	$1.05	14d	1	0.69mi
414 E Hazelwood St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,595	$1.20	25d	1	0.73mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	0d	1	0.73mi
846 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,000	$1.10	4d	1	0.73mi
882 Breakwater Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,250	$1.23	23d	1	0.76mi
605 Grenada Lake Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,925	$1.23	16d	1	0.76mi
803 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1683	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	0.77mi
325 Allenwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,900	$1.88	45d	1	0.80mi
865 Table Rock St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,050	$1.31	23d	1	0.82mi
366 Lake Erie Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1824	$1,990	$1.09	25d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $254,995 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,995 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,995 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,995 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,995 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,995 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,995 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,995 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,995 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 497-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $259,995 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,995 Active 874 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,995 Active 873 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,995 Active 872 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,995 Active 871 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,995 Active 870 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $259,995 501-char remark
18. 2026-01-31
    price $260,995 501-char remark
19. 2025-12-17
    price $280,995 501-char remark
20. 2025-11-19
    price $285,995 501-char remark
21. 2025-10-04
    price $290,995 501-char remark
22. 2025-09-17
    price $280,995 501-char remark
23. 2025-08-14
    price $270,995 501-char remark
24. 2025-07-22
    price $267,995 501-char remark
25. 2025-07-16
    price $264,995 501-char remark
26. 2025-03-31
    price $263,995 501-char remark
27. 2025-02-22
    price $273,995 501-char remark
28. 2024-11-04
    price $298,995 501-char remark
29. 2024-09-11
    price $297,995 501-char remark
30. 2024-07-13
    price $307,995 501-char remark
31. 2024-05-03
    price $317,995 501-char remark
32. 2024-03-13
    price $316,995 501-char remark
33. 2024-02-25
    price $314,995 501-char remark
34. 2024-02-03
    price $312,995 501-char remark
35. 2024-01-25
    price $309,995 501-char remark
36. 2024-01-13
    listed $307,995 Active 501-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,562
• − Property taxes: −$4,971
• − Insurance: −$1,657
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$9,640
• Taxable loss: −$14,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B