114 Carmela Ct · Jupiter, FL 33478

$2,195,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2016 0.27 ac lot Est $1830k · 20% over $706/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completed in 2016, this exceptional single-story residence offers the perfect blend of modern elegance and effortless Florida living. Spanning 3,080 square feet under air, the home features four spacious bedrooms and four beautifully appointed bathrooms, thoughtfully designed to provide both comfort and privacy. Set on one of the most coveted streets within Jupiter Country Club, the property enjoys breathtaking, unobstructed views of the lush golf course—creating a serene backdrop for everyday living. The open, flowing layout is ideal for both relaxed living and sophisticated entertaining, with refined finishes and quality craftsmanship evident throughout. Step outside to a stunning o

Key facts

• Resort amenities
• Outdoor living space
• Stylish pergola

Tags

• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• FULLY EQUIPPED SUMMER KITCHEN
• STYLISH PERGOLA
• SIGNATURE GREG NORMAN COURSE
• RESORT AMENITIES
• HAR TRU TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Community association managed by Campbell Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $706; HOA covers maintenance of grounds, security, and common areas; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, golf course, tennis courts, pickleball courts, basketball court, putting green, cafe/restaurant, community room, sidewalks, and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 6 total parking spaces; Attached 3-car garage; Driveway parking
• Security: Gated community; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Resale; North-facing
• Construction: Built with CBS construction; Barrel roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Open patio; Patio; Back yard fencing; Private in-ground pool; Located on a golf course; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.19M).
• Recommended offer: $2.06M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.6% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jerry Thomas Elementary School (math 60% / reading 67%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 718 students, 41% FRL); Independence Middle School (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A, #68 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 1,166 students, 25% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,063,299 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,829,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
174 Carmela Ct	0.20mi	4/4.0	3,189 (+4%)	1mo	$1,895,000	$594	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-153,621
• Equity at exit: $327,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $126,506
• Equity at exit: $189,783

Cash invested: $614,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33478

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $22,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,511
• Tax from tax record: −$1,535 /mo · $18,418/yr
• Insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$706
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,742
• Net cashflow: $3,172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,565

Max offer price $2,195,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $548,750
• Closing costs: $65,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
131 Carmela Ct Jupiter, FL	5.0	5.5	4463	$22,000	$4.93	21d	1	0.04mi
179 Carmela Ct Jupiter, FL	3.0	4.5	3930	$30,000	$7.63	19d	1	0.20mi
182 Rosalia Ct Jupiter, FL	4.0	4.5	4000	$25,000	$6.25	24d	1	0.28mi
236 Carina Dr Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.5	2621	$11,250	$4.29	2d	1	0.69mi
141 Cinder Dunes Pt Jupiter, FL	4.0	4.0	3856	$20,000	$5.19	24d	1	1.06mi
15864 78th Dr N Palm Beach Gardens, FL	5.0	3.5	3678	$10,950	$2.98	24d	1	1.45mi
16146 72nd Dr N Palm Beach Gardens, FL	4.0	3.0	3171	$8,000	$2.52	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $706 · $8,472/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,195,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,195,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $2,295,000 Active
15. 2026-03-31
    historical $11,000
16. 2026-02-13
    listed $11,000
17. 2026-02-13
    historical $12,000
18. 2026-01-20
    listed $12,000
19. 2026-01-20
    historical $12,000
20. 2025-12-11
    price $12,000
21. 2025-09-18
    listed $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $18,418 · $1,535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,418 · $1,535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $270,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$122,954
• − Property taxes: −$18,418
• − Insurance: −$10,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$21,677
• − Management: −$21,677
• − HOA: −$8,472
• − Depreciation: −$63,855
• Taxable income: $2,934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$704
• After-tax cash flow: $37,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #415
• US rank: #7386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jupiter, FL
• City population: 68,420
• Population (ZIP): 15,205

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -306.11%
• Current HPI: 427.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17553.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $2,295,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-31 Rental Removed $11,000 RMLSFL
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $11,000 RMLSFL
• 2026-02-13 Rental Removed $12,000 GFLMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed for Rent $12,000 GFLMLS
• 2026-01-20 Rental Removed $12,000 RMLSFL
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $12,000 RMLSFL
• 2025-09-18 Listed for Rent $13,000 RMLSFL

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,418 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.