4772 Trace Ct SE · Southport, NC 28461

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2023 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It has a power connection on the lot already I would think it would need inspection again it's been there since it was bought in 2009.

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 75 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Brick/mortar permanent foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master located downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Master bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); High ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Accessible full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Crawl space foundation (basement details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.8% in Southport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,475 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southport Elementary (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #245 of 1,410 statewide, top 18%, 403 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 877 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $249k implies a 479% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,631 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,808
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4762 Southgate Blvd SE	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+3%)	3mo	$170,400	$109	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,573
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,092
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28461

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 877
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,893

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4917 Abbington Oaks Way SE Southport, NC	4.0	3.0	1842	$2,100	$1.14	14d	1	0.48mi
4954 Summerswell Ln Southport, NC	3.0	2.0	1971	$2,550	$1.29	23d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $249,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $259,900
19. 2026-04-14
    price $264,000
20. 2026-04-04
    listed $289,000 Active
21. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $43,000 Closed 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    It has a power connection on the lot already I would think it would need inspection again it's been there since it was bought in 2009.

22. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus $48,000

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    It has a power connection on the lot already I would think it would need inspection again it's been there since it was bought in 2009.

23. 2022-10-26
    status Pending 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    It has a power connection on the lot already I would think it would need inspection again it's been there since it was bought in 2009.

24. 2022-06-30
    listed $55,000 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    It has a power connection on the lot already I would think it would need inspection again it's been there since it was bought in 2009.

25. 2009-02-18
    historical
26. 2008-08-18
    listed $55,000
27. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,015/yr (+$85/mo · 98.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $3,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Southport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• City population: 23,762
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 23,762
• Household income: $82,692
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.19%
• Current HPI: 142.5667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1632.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $259,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $264,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $289,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) $43,000 Hive MLS
• 2022-10-26 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2022-06-30 Listed $55,000 Hive MLS
• 2009-02-18 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2008-08-18 Listed $55,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.