The Fender Plan · Lakeville, MN 55044

$371,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience townhome life in the Fender, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Brookshire in Lakeville, Minnesota. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Fender's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper level and a roomy upper loft for expanded living space. In the bedroom suite, homeowners can enjoy a walk-in closet and quartz double vanity. A second bathroom is positioned conveniently by the other two bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Images are representational only and will vary from the homes as built. Images are of model home and may include custom design features not available in other homes.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Quartz double vanity
• Smart home products

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• QUARTZ DOUBLE VANITY
• SMART HOME PRODUCTS

🏗️ New construction. The $371,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $431,526.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $372k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-814 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Farmington Public School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #104 of 301 in MN (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 718 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $274,495 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.08%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,526
• List price: $371,990
• Delta: -13.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17563 Driscoll Pl	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,798 (+5%)	3mo	$382,202	$213	63
4894 171st St W	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,880 (+10%)	23mo	$470,000	$250	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-120,654
• Equity at exit: $64,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-167,269
• Equity at exit: $37,310

Cash invested: $120,827 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 718
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,263
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$539 /mo · $6,473/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,775

Max offer price $313,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-515	-5% $-665	+0% $-814	+5% $-963	+10% $-1,112
Rent	-10% $-1,031	-5% $-922	+0% $-814	+5% $-705	+10% $-597
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-704	base $-814	+0.5pp $-925	+1.0pp $-1,039

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,881
• Closing costs: $12,946
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17074 Dysart Pl Unit 17074 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,800	$1.60	11d	1	0.21mi
17066 Dysart Pl Unit 17066 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,895	$1.53	20d	1	0.23mi
17079 Dysart Pl Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1894	$2,795	$1.48	11d	1	0.23mi
17040 Dysart Pl Unit 17040 Lakeville, MN	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,700	$1.59	0d	1	0.23mi
5017 161st St W Unit 5017 Lakeville, MN	2.0	2.5	1895	$3,350	$1.77	15d	1	1.12mi
16106 Duvane Way Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1564	$3,395	$2.17	22d	1	1.13mi
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,702	$2.28	0d	14	1.14mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,340	$2.24	0d	4	1.19mi
18388 English Ave Farmington, MN	2.0	2.0	1544	$1,999	$1.29	44d	1	1.33mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $371,990 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $371,990 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $371,990 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $371,990 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $371,990 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $371,990 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $371,990 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $371,990 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $371,990 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $371,990 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $371,990 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $368,990 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $368,990 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $368,990 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Experience townhome life in the Fender, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Brookshire in Lakeville, Minnesota. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Fender's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper level and a roomy upper loft for expanded living space. In the bedroom suite, homeowners can enjoy a walk-in closet and quartz double vanity. A second bathroom is positioned conveniently by the other two bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Images are representational only and will vary from the homes as built. Images are of model home and may include custom design features not available in other homes.

16. 2026-03-24
    price $366,990 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Experience townhome life in the Fender, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Brookshire in Lakeville, Minnesota. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Fender's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper level and a roomy upper loft for expanded living space. In the bedroom suite, homeowners can enjoy a walk-in closet and quartz double vanity. A second bathroom is positioned conveniently by the other two bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Images are representational only and will vary from the homes as built. Images are of model home and may include custom design features not available in other homes.

17. 2026-02-07
    price $364,990 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Experience townhome life in the Fender, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Brookshire in Lakeville, Minnesota. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Fender's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper level and a roomy upper loft for expanded living space. In the bedroom suite, homeowners can enjoy a walk-in closet and quartz double vanity. A second bathroom is positioned conveniently by the other two bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Images are representational only and will vary from the homes as built. Images are of model home and may include custom design features not available in other homes.

18. 2025-12-23
    listed $404,990 Active 1075-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

    Experience townhome life in the Fender, a two-level, three-bedroom new townhome plan offered at Brookshire in Lakeville, Minnesota. This plan opens with a roomy foyer, and transitions to the open-concept main level which integrates the kitchen and living room. The Fender's kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances. The outdoors is easily accessible on the kitchen-adjacent concrete patio. Three bedrooms are on the upper level and a roomy upper loft for expanded living space. In the bedroom suite, homeowners can enjoy a walk-in closet and quartz double vanity. A second bathroom is positioned conveniently by the other two bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Images are representational only and will vary from the homes as built. Images are of model home and may include custom design features not available in other homes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,172
• − Property taxes: −$6,473
• − Insurance: −$2,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − Depreciation: −$12,553
• Taxable loss: −$17,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,245
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711820
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,959
• Composite: 43.93/100
• National rank: #2905
• State rank: #104 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $368,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $366,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $364,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Listed $404,990 Zillow